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This blog is the work of an educated civilian, not of an expert in the fields discussed.

Monday, October 31, 2005

Iraqi Civilian Deaths

And Also: To give the devil his due, which even liberal bloggers like Atrios did, Kristoff did say "put up or get out" in respect to Cheney: come clean or you should resign or be removed. The felt need to clothe this in a glove (maybe there is innocent explanations) as well as shots to the Democrats still is quite annoying. Still, half nod to ya.


I have for a long time been interested in actual numbers of civilian Iraqi deaths, something a slain human rights worker (Marla Ruzicka) spoke out in support of as well. The NYT had an interesting article yesterday noting that a government report had some raw numbers -- basically hidden inside without fanfare -- suggesting such information can in some fashion be formulated. There is some understandable wariness about putting out death tolls and a less believable suggestion that it would help the insurgents by showing them the level of their success. Anyway, the numbers -- which many find on the low side -- help quantify the damage. To wit:
According to the graph, Iraqi civilians and security forces were killed and wounded by insurgents at a rate of about 26 a day early in 2004, and at a rate of about 40 a day later that year. The rate increased in 2005 to about 51 a day, and by the end of August had jumped to about 63 a day. No figures were provided for the number of Iraqis killed by American-led forces.

Extrapolating the daily averages over the months from Jan. 1, 2004, to Sept. 16 this year results in a total of 25,902 Iraqi civilians and security forces killed and wounded by insurgents.

According to an analysis by Hamit Dardagan, who compiles statistics for Iraq Body Count, a group that tracks civilian deaths, about three Iraqis are wounded in the war for each one who dies. Given that ratio, the total Iraqi death toll from insurgent violence would be about 6,475, based on extrapolations of the military's figures.

The information as was the chart was deep inside. Still, it's a start.