The Academy Awards are pretty early this year -- February 25 (happy b'day sis!) -- so the nominees were released yesterday. Overall, pretty good choices overall, not too many surprises. Pan's Labyrinth (El Laberinto del Fauno) better win something -- actually, it should have been nominated for Best Picture (it was given a Best Foreign nod).
There are various "great enough to be nominated" picks, though one should note they generally are well-deserved: Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children -- didn't see, but this former Bad News Bears actor's performance was well praised), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine, the girl), Eddie Murphy (didn't hear much noise about his performance), and Penélope Cruz (if Helen Mirren wasn't there, she might be said to be favored). Oh, and Gore's documentary actually received two nominations -- one for best song! This is good news -- there was a tradition where perhaps the best documentary was somehow not nominated, surely not given the win. Still, why wasn't Word Play?
Some picks seem like pretty good sure bets. Babel and Letters from Iwo Jima probably will get one major win a piece (best picture/director, debatable which gets which; the latter more likely to get two, if that happens). Peter O'Toole (who already received, after being hesitant, a life time achievement award) seems pretty favored for Best Actor, while Helen Mirren gets the Best Actress nod (yes, Streep was nominated again ... deservedly, probably). Alan Arkin might also have the sentimental nod for Best Supporting though some might actually think Haley deserves it more performance-wise (I don't want to see Haley's movie, but AA had a loveable, but not GREAT performance). Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) has that "young star" flavor that usually is the test for Supporting Actress.*
Writing is a bit trickier, though it is a bit confusing that Borat received an adapted screenplay nod. And, Click and Pirates of Caribbean just might get one of those "not that good movies, but nice technicals" awards, the latter probably deserving at least one -- it does look good.
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* Two actresses from Babel are nominated, surely a killer for any long shot win, leaving Cate Blanchett (not for Babel, but probably not for something that will trump the lively new face or the cute factor of AB).