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This blog is the work of an educated civilian, not of an expert in the fields discussed.

Thursday, February 06, 2020

Iowa Caucus

I have not gotten into the weeds regarding the Democrats messing up the Iowa caucus, but it is unclear how much of a clusterfuck it really is as compared to a screw-up. The numbers will come out eventually and we basically got the delegate count now. Will a spare delegate or whatever matter? But, there is a lot of excitement over the matter; maybe I'm just not paying much attention. A local Iowa paper flagged something many missed: there was also a Republican caucus! Bill Weld got one delegate! Joe Walsh a few votes as well as "other." I know; not very striking, but unlike some states decided, at least they had one.

Buttigieg/Sanders now have around the same number of delegates with a narrow difference on vote counts (mainly for bragging rights, I gather). About a quarter of the vote each. Doesn't seem, to quote an adjective, someone has a "decisive" victory. Warren has around twenty percent, maybe 18. Biden (a surprise, since he looked like a winner beforehand) has around fifteen percent. Amy K. around 12%. Basic problem is the caucus is a crummy inconvenient process that has electoral college implications as a matter of "one person, one vote." Maybe, just have a normal primary and rotate first dibs?

I still can't see Buttigieg as the nominee. "Bernie" (he's not five; his name is Sanders!) really doesn't work either. Bit early to assume. The "it's going to be Biden" concept hit a snag, but unfortunately not quite time to be gleeful there yet. Warren just might be able to be the unity/moderate candidate. As one person noted, Sanders and Warren might have similar policies, but on "unity, treatment of women, character, electability," not quite the same.

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