Comment: "How Israel plans to escalate its war on Hamas in Gaza"

A kneejerk type found a forty or so second clip on Twitter to further his message. And, even then, had to expand it from a comment against Israeli attacks on Palestinians under their control to ANY use of force. 

(When foreign nations attacked Israel, the international law argument made was not applicable.)

My recent comments about Schumer included a reference to an interview that covers his new book on anti-semitism. I was happy to see, though it was not addressed in the interview, he criticized settlements in his recent big speech. They are a major barrier to any conceivable lasting peace.

It is quite true that they are not the only problem. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore how troublesome they are for multiple reasons. A Swiss Cheese West Bank makes a two-state solution especially unlikely. We are talking about a speck of land even without them. 

Also, settlements are a major cause of psychological unpleasantness. Palestinians feel like prisoners who have to undergo multiple checkpoints to move around. The spittle coming from the comments on the blog makes me wonder how they would feel if they had the empathy to see themselves in Palestinians' shoes.

A tragic part of all of this is that the resistance has some valid arguments but uses horrible tactics. Violence against civilians is going to lead to a lot of hatred. And, the math is horrible. One article:

But if the maximalist tactics are implemented, they would represent an escalation of a 17-month operation that the Gaza Health Ministry says has killed nearly 50,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children. The war also has killed more than 400 Israeli soldiers.

NPR:

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas led an attack from Gaza into Israel that killed almost 1,200 people and took 251 captive, according to Israeli government figures. Israel responded with a military campaign to destroy Hamas and free the hostages. Negotiations to end the war broke down last week.

At some point, there have to be some proportional response rules. One Lancet study summarized:

We estimated 64 260 deaths (95% CI 55 298–78 525) due to traumatic injury during the study period, suggesting the Palestinian MoH under-reported mortality by 41%. 

[More data at Wikipedia.]

Israel had broad support in the U.S. after being attacked. Justifably so and it underlines why Hamas has so much to answer for. They had to know what would happen. It was an ugly calculus. 

The WP article suggests the idea:

Israel has destroyed nearly all of Hamas’s 24 fighting battalions, it says, leaving a few thousand fighters in Gaza. But to fully eradicate the remnants, it would have to hold the territory — which some officers and analysts say carries high risks for Israel.

“If you look at the French in Algeria, [the U.S.] Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Americans in Afghanistan, the history of counterinsurgency attempts teach us that even the Israelis will fail,” said Sascha-Dominik Dov Bachmann, an expert on warfare at the University of Canberra. “It would undermine the moral and ethical basis of Israel.”

So, although Israel can succeed in a large fashion short time there is still a danger that long term they lose. The question is how badly. For instance, France's colonial effort in Algiers is not the same as Israel's situation. France had a country to fall back upon. Algiers was not as basic to its sense of itself.  

The article also reminds people that there is a dime's worth of difference between Biden and Trump.

Last year, the Biden administration refused to send a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs to Israel unless it allowed more humanitarian aid into Gaza and did more to prevent civilian casualties.

But Trump, who took office in January, has approved the sale of the heavy bombs. And officials have said that Israel consulted with the Trump administration before cutting off all aid to Gaza in March.

I try to largely keep out of debates over Israel and Palestine. I rather not "Talk about Israel." It will lead to people on each side having over-the-top positions, including tossing a lot of data in along the way.  

Overall, the whole thing is so tragic. And, whatever your position, one side -- especially women and children -- are suffering much more.