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This blog is the work of an educated civilian, not of an expert in the fields discussed.

Sunday, May 03, 2020

Primary Update: Kansas and Stuff

Reason number x why we need to get rid of Trump -- the Administration is refusing to let National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci testify in front of a House Committee.  Maybe, they should just have SNL stand-in Brad Pitt testify for him. This is fucking asshole behavior even without the stakes, besides being a form of obstruction of Congress.  They should impeach him or something. 

If things went on schedule, the primary season would have basically over somewhere in April, needing to deal with Trump helping to convince people to really around Biden.  This already was happening by mid-March, but we do not have winner take all primaries, so it still was going to require April for Biden to rack up the votes.  Without the stress of the Big V., there was a good chance Sanders would not have suspended, even though there would have been a similar delegate gap by April 1st. with more March delegates going to Biden.  As things went, we back-loaded things, with  over 1200 delegates to be apportioned after May.

April was to end with New York and related primaries.  Now, for now, New York won't even have a presidential primary and Ohio (postponed from March) provided more than half of the limited delegates in that month. May only has 160 total, Kansas and Guam scheduled today.  Thus, Oregon with around sixty delegates is at this point over a third of total for the month, which at this point is an also ran (Wisconsin was a story for a horrible reason; Ohio for a somewhat better one in comparison).  But, politics continues, and without sports, it is one more reason to "scoreboard watch."

(Here is a take on the first press conference from the new Trump press secretary, who is by chance the wife of former Mets reliever, Sean Gilmartin.  His forte being back-end reliever; her, troll.)

Regionally, the split this month is Kansas/Nebraska (68 total), Oregon (61; originally potentially a Sanders goal) and Guam/Hawaii (31 total; originally April).  Actually, trying to find news about Guam, it looks like they postponed what was originally listed as a caucus.  Guam was a bit of a footnote in the whole USS Theodore Roosevelt controversy.  To remind, Puerto Rico also postponed indefinitely, Virgin Islands is due in June, Sanders over Biden 4/2 in North Mariana Islands and Bloomberg over Gabbard (her only delegates) by the same in America Samoa. And, let's not forget Democrats Abroad, which Sanders won nine to four but Warren did receive over fourteen percent of the votes, so really deserved at least one delegate.  Missed floor.  Instant run-off people!

(Something like forty thousand votes were involved in that last little known primary, about double the ultimate votes in Alaska. Also, about five percent were split around the also rans in this case.  The instant runoff option here is less important than when more people and delegates are at issue, but it is an example of the "waste" that can occur and how borderline vote counts just missing cut-offs can result in loss of delegates.)  

Kansas went with all mail-in voting and it was seen partially as a sort of test run for November.  Maybe, New York should have kept that in mind and not basically cancel primary elections is those more thinly populated counties that only had presidential primary elections.  This is the sort of wrinkle, other than giving the people the chance to do their basic right and duty as citizens in a democratic republic (not begrudging the others), that suggest these races still provide some purpose.

The candidates are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Gabbard and Uncommitted.  May 2nd was the final day for mail-in voting but the results were not available until Sunday.  Kansas went with a ranked choice approach with a fifteen percent floor.  I noted above that Warren in one race might have obtained a delegate (or two) if things were handled differently in certain race. But, this depends on the system.  So, here "Biden was the first choice of 70% in the first round, compared to Sanders’ 18.1%. Warren drew 7.8% and Gabbard 1.1 %. A remaining 3 percent of voters were uncommitted as their first choice."  The final result: "After the ranked choice process was complete, Biden had 76.9% to Sanders’ 23.1%."
Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article242468411.html#storylink=cp

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article242468411.html#storylink=cpy

We recently held news that Rep. Amash was seeking out the Libertarian nomination.  It looks like third parties are already have begun to nominate people.  Perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente was nominated for the Alliance Party.  The Constitutional Party chose troll Don Blankenship, a familiar name as well.  Libertarian is due later this month, Green later on.  And, there are others listed at that last link.  There is a standard comment that Clinton won the popular vote over Trump.  But, in 2016, the third party vote was more than the margin of victory.  And, unlike 2000 (Gore/Nader had a clear majority), the ultimate split there is a bit unclear.  An instant run-off system would basically turn on the Libertarian vote.  People skip over that part though in some other context would support IRV.

(That link also clarifies what I saw regarding Biden having hundreds more delegates.  Apparently, some are counting superdelegates pledged to him. But, I'm going with the "pledged" delegates at the 270 to Win website.) 

I bet one didn't think there was that much more to say at this point, huh? Telephonic Supreme Court orals soon ...

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