I recently received my New York absentee ballot, now with the presidential option back, so it was well timed that the full opinion of the court of appeals requiring the latter was released this week. On that front, I might work at the polls (as I did last Election Day), which I'm told involves gloves and mask. That can get tedious for a full day, but guess if I'm going to talk about the importance of primaries ... (I have noted that absentee and drop-boxes could in theory replace regular polling places to some degree especially if the president is the only candidate.)
As noted in the original brief order, the opinion basically (if maybe with a bit more detail though though means/end test section was only a few pages) followed the lower court. The right to vote for delegates to the convention is not merely a "beauty contest" even if candidates suspended and is protected by the First Amendment. The fact that New York has been particularly hit is a partial response to the fact it alone tried to cancel the presidential primary, but most hard hit sections still will have elections anyway, if sports teams can train/in person voting should be too and the increase of processing of ballots also as a whole is minor.
As suggested by John Oliver in a segment on absentee voting last Sunday, claims of fraud are not based on reality as a whole. For instance, one reply to such bs noted that Melanie Trump did not sign the reply envelope a New York voter has to put the ballot in (then you put it in another) and her vote did not count. The ballot also notes you can only fill in the ovals or write-in slots. Any other mark on the ballot could get it rejected. My concern there is that there is not a means to provide a means of correction. This is one reason that an in person alternative for a certain remainder, shall we say, is a good idea. Mail-in votes will delay some results for yesterday's primaries too, especially Pennsylvania, which has a chunk of the delegates.
The New York absentee ballot, by executive order covering not going because of the virus (unlike Texas), requires you sign an oath/affirmation that includes saying you could not go to the polls to vote. My possible poll working made me wonder about that, though guess one can't prove that until that date you knew you would go to the polls. Finally, there is the usual "who are these people," including male/female party delegates. You don't only vote for a presidential candidate, but six delegates (only Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren and Yang have them -- so in theory, you could vote for one each). I speak of separate ones. and there is a choice in both cases. I have no idea who these people are. Should I write in?
The ballot info link above notes -- "In the case of gender non-binary delegates, they shall not be counted as either a male or a female, and the remainder of the delegation shall be equally divided by gender." The presidential delegates split by sex equally except when there is an odd number. Often a survey will only have a M/F option. What does a non-binary person do if they want to be a party delegate? Should there be a non-binary delegate? Some countries use sex quotas in parliaments and other bodies. How such questions are handled tend to make me go "hmm."
(It's like the failure of news providers to clearly examine past NYC curfews when we are now going to have a week of 8PM-5PM curfews, something that are rare in our city's history even in a limited form.)
===
The practical effect might be the same on some level (not much) but June means more presidential delegate-wise with more backloading. There was seven states and D.C. with presidential primaries (other states had elections too) though many were small in delegate count. The big ones were primaries pushed back (Indiana, Maryland and Pennsylvania). The other races also included some notables. Valerie Plame did not win her primary. She is a familiar name but did have some baggage. The Republican so bad that even his own party, Steve King, lost his too. (The replacement isn't exactly ideal but safe enough that it will make it harder for the Democrat to win in the conservative district.) OTOH, Greg Gianfonte, the Montana representative, won his primary. I gather he didn't hit any news people this time around. [He ran for governor this time.]
479 presidential delegates were at stake (270 to Win figure), but over 100 delegates has yet to be apportioned. Biden now has somewhere in the low 1900s with 1991 needed to win. For the sense of completeness, it is unfortunate that New Jersey postponed their primary or it might have sealed the deal (though with many PA votes not to be counted to next week -- a theme that might be kept in mind in November if absentee voting is used more -- we still might not know for a while). BTW, I saw an article that Biden wants to pick his v.p. by August 1st, so people who want him to speed that along from the usual timetable might be disappointed.
There are more to apportion, but it is fairly telling that the preliminary numbers has Sanders around in the single digits. Sanders is hovering around 15% in multiple states. Biden aced Maryland with over 80%. As of now, Sanders did a bit better in Pennsylvania (which again has a chunk of the delegates) with around 20%. Warren had her name taken off that ballot; some postponed elections (including NY) have long forgotten people still on there. Biden has over 75% in D.C. as well but there Warren edged Sanders, 12/10. Both are below the floor, so we have not had any "zombie candidate" other than Sanders (a sort of asterisk) gaining delegates since March.
One thing I have referenced, but has basically received no attention generally from what I can tell (somewhat unfortunately), is the Republican presidential primary numbers. Yes, they exist. As of now, a little over 5% didn't vote for Trump in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island while Bill Weld actually received nine percent in Indiana and about 12% in Maryland. Around six percent and eight percent were "uncommitted" in Montana and New Mexico. These are AP's numbers and I don't see any for D.C. Yes, these are small, but we are talking nobodies (in some cases literally) running against him though Bill Weld is sorta someone, if one I have not heard about for months (and not much then).
Virgin Islands [Guam now too] on Saturday and Georgia/West Virginia next Tuesday. Georgia has over 100. We also have delegates to be allotted. So, Biden should officially have enough next week though we are at the point when the non-Sanders/Warren also rans provide him the margin he needs. Also, there is reportedly a Republican primary in Puerto Rico on Sunday.
Update: At 8PM on Wednesday, at 270 to Win:
The general approach seems to be to have some for let's say the state as a whole and then district by district. There is a 15% floor so Sanders won't get any if he doesn't meet that. In fact, only an agreement with Biden to allot loyal Sanders voters even gives him any statewide delegates. Thus, though the rule has yet to matter yet except to lose a few existing delegates, even if another candidate who suspended managed to get that, the state-wide delegates will go to Biden.
OTOH, they still get district delegates. Being a nerd, I'm aiming for someone to get at least one more. The New York court opinion noted that it was not going to rely on any such agreements (Sanders would likely have received NY delegates regardless) since they were not officially in place.
As noted in the original brief order, the opinion basically (if maybe with a bit more detail though though means/end test section was only a few pages) followed the lower court. The right to vote for delegates to the convention is not merely a "beauty contest" even if candidates suspended and is protected by the First Amendment. The fact that New York has been particularly hit is a partial response to the fact it alone tried to cancel the presidential primary, but most hard hit sections still will have elections anyway, if sports teams can train/in person voting should be too and the increase of processing of ballots also as a whole is minor.
As suggested by John Oliver in a segment on absentee voting last Sunday, claims of fraud are not based on reality as a whole. For instance, one reply to such bs noted that Melanie Trump did not sign the reply envelope a New York voter has to put the ballot in (then you put it in another) and her vote did not count. The ballot also notes you can only fill in the ovals or write-in slots. Any other mark on the ballot could get it rejected. My concern there is that there is not a means to provide a means of correction. This is one reason that an in person alternative for a certain remainder, shall we say, is a good idea. Mail-in votes will delay some results for yesterday's primaries too, especially Pennsylvania, which has a chunk of the delegates.
The New York absentee ballot, by executive order covering not going because of the virus (unlike Texas), requires you sign an oath/affirmation that includes saying you could not go to the polls to vote. My possible poll working made me wonder about that, though guess one can't prove that until that date you knew you would go to the polls. Finally, there is the usual "who are these people," including male/female party delegates. You don't only vote for a presidential candidate, but six delegates (only Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren and Yang have them -- so in theory, you could vote for one each). I speak of separate ones. and there is a choice in both cases. I have no idea who these people are. Should I write in?
The ballot info link above notes -- "In the case of gender non-binary delegates, they shall not be counted as either a male or a female, and the remainder of the delegation shall be equally divided by gender." The presidential delegates split by sex equally except when there is an odd number. Often a survey will only have a M/F option. What does a non-binary person do if they want to be a party delegate? Should there be a non-binary delegate? Some countries use sex quotas in parliaments and other bodies. How such questions are handled tend to make me go "hmm."
(It's like the failure of news providers to clearly examine past NYC curfews when we are now going to have a week of 8PM-5PM curfews, something that are rare in our city's history even in a limited form.)
===
The practical effect might be the same on some level (not much) but June means more presidential delegate-wise with more backloading. There was seven states and D.C. with presidential primaries (other states had elections too) though many were small in delegate count. The big ones were primaries pushed back (Indiana, Maryland and Pennsylvania). The other races also included some notables. Valerie Plame did not win her primary. She is a familiar name but did have some baggage. The Republican so bad that even his own party, Steve King, lost his too. (The replacement isn't exactly ideal but safe enough that it will make it harder for the Democrat to win in the conservative district.) OTOH, Greg Gianfonte, the Montana representative, won his primary. I gather he didn't hit any news people this time around. [He ran for governor this time.]
479 presidential delegates were at stake (270 to Win figure), but over 100 delegates has yet to be apportioned. Biden now has somewhere in the low 1900s with 1991 needed to win. For the sense of completeness, it is unfortunate that New Jersey postponed their primary or it might have sealed the deal (though with many PA votes not to be counted to next week -- a theme that might be kept in mind in November if absentee voting is used more -- we still might not know for a while). BTW, I saw an article that Biden wants to pick his v.p. by August 1st, so people who want him to speed that along from the usual timetable might be disappointed.
There are more to apportion, but it is fairly telling that the preliminary numbers has Sanders around in the single digits. Sanders is hovering around 15% in multiple states. Biden aced Maryland with over 80%. As of now, Sanders did a bit better in Pennsylvania (which again has a chunk of the delegates) with around 20%. Warren had her name taken off that ballot; some postponed elections (including NY) have long forgotten people still on there. Biden has over 75% in D.C. as well but there Warren edged Sanders, 12/10. Both are below the floor, so we have not had any "zombie candidate" other than Sanders (a sort of asterisk) gaining delegates since March.
One thing I have referenced, but has basically received no attention generally from what I can tell (somewhat unfortunately), is the Republican presidential primary numbers. Yes, they exist. As of now, a little over 5% didn't vote for Trump in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island while Bill Weld actually received nine percent in Indiana and about 12% in Maryland. Around six percent and eight percent were "uncommitted" in Montana and New Mexico. These are AP's numbers and I don't see any for D.C. Yes, these are small, but we are talking nobodies (in some cases literally) running against him though Bill Weld is sorta someone, if one I have not heard about for months (and not much then).
Virgin Islands [Guam now too] on Saturday and Georgia/West Virginia next Tuesday. Georgia has over 100. We also have delegates to be allotted. So, Biden should officially have enough next week though we are at the point when the non-Sanders/Warren also rans provide him the margin he needs. Also, there is reportedly a Republican primary in Puerto Rico on Sunday.
Update: At 8PM on Wednesday, at 270 to Win:
Joe Biden, the presumptive nominee for nearly two months, is just 35 pledged delegates away from the 1,991 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. This is based on the latest count of the Associated Press. Biden has thus far claimed 390 delegates from Tuesday's primaries, with Bernie Sanders earning 33. There are 56 delegates still to be awarded.The over 75% (though Sanders did meet the floor) in PA helped a lot with those number. It's 129/21 so far with (by one count) 39 delegates left. Again, you might have to wait to next week to get some of those delegates. But, with single digits also coming this weekend in VI, we might have confirmation before the Georgia/WVA races.
The general approach seems to be to have some for let's say the state as a whole and then district by district. There is a 15% floor so Sanders won't get any if he doesn't meet that. In fact, only an agreement with Biden to allot loyal Sanders voters even gives him any statewide delegates. Thus, though the rule has yet to matter yet except to lose a few existing delegates, even if another candidate who suspended managed to get that, the state-wide delegates will go to Biden.
OTOH, they still get district delegates. Being a nerd, I'm aiming for someone to get at least one more. The New York court opinion noted that it was not going to rely on any such agreements (Sanders would likely have received NY delegates regardless) since they were not officially in place.
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