First Mayoral Debate

I'm not a big debate fan though do look at responses on Twitter and so forth to help get a sense of things. Twitter can be fun here including a Mystery Science Theater 3000 vibe.  Debates can be useful, especially to get a flavor of a bunch of candidates. This is particularly the case when you have eight (Democratic) candidates, some of whom (at least) you are likely not to be familiar with.  Or, whatever Republicans have.

My choices are gong to be decided in other ways though like Supreme Court oral arguments, maybe it will help along the edges. When you have five options in ranked choice voting, that matters more.  You will have your first choice, who might not be someone that has a good chance to win.  A second might be your "pretty good" option; but what happens if that person loses? Do you have a back-up and/or want to play a role there?

My opening choices are fairly set; my trick will be back-ups. Dianne Morales is my choice here -- she has strong liberal activist energy, but seeing "she has a plan for that!" sounds ominous.  Then, you have Maya Wiley (who said Morales was her second choice; Morales didn't return the favor though I saw that she did early on) who is a more establishment friendly liberal choice.  Both also add that POC/woman vibe that maybe this time (as compared to the presidential race) will work out. 

Who next?  This is my concern really -- what happens if Wiley is not the one and Morales doesn't have an upset?  My safe third was going to be Scott Stringer, but then the sexual allegation came out. And, people I respect who endorsed him removed their endorsement.  As noted in my last New York election entry, part of the problem here was his response (as well as the overall situation, including respecting #MeToo in a Democratic city).  Seeing that he during the debate brought back Biden's accuser didn't help there at all.  Looking into the allegation, other than a misleading bit where she supported a candidate with the same last name as Andrew Yang who was also on the ballot, there simply was no similar "RED FLAG!" alert about the accuser.  

If Stringer is going to keep up this over the top defense, it would be so depressing to even put him on my ballot.  The problem is who else to put in that slot. Kathryn Garcia is interesting -- she got some good feedback for her work as a public official (and interestingly was second choice of more than one candidate though Yang picking her didn't really help).  But, she's a longshot. Yang is horrible. Shaun Donovan? Eh. 

Ray McGuire (the black businessman) is somewhat interesting and huh Spike Lee likes him (!), but realistically I don't see him as the one. (He might be a possible second choice for many though.)  Eric Adams?  The black Brooklyn borough president and former police officer has that office experience I appreciate.  But, he came off as much too conservative.  So, if Garcia and McGuire are put after Morales and Wiley, who is fifth? 

I'm left with Stringer, who experience and policy-wise along with a shot at winning is a Morales/Wiley alternative with a bad taste in my mouth.  But, then, he is just going to be a back-up, and they are likely to have problems.  Stringer is a problem here -- Yang by one article "leads" with twenty percent, which is still a fraction.  It's hard to see how many second place slots he has.  So, I still am fairly comfortable with saying he won't win, ranked choice helping there.  Without ranked choice, there is a shot it would be Yang and someone else in a run-off.  Even then, hard to see Yang winning.  But, some see him ahead in a big field and say "he'll win." 

After 2016, each time, of course, we will always worry.  But, that too is a cheap approach without more.  First, Trump winning the nomination in hindsight was not too surprising.  I was blinded at the time by how horrible he was, but it was pretty clear by early 2016 that no other candidate really could challenge his core thirty or so percent. Yang doesn't have that high number.  And, ranked choice changes things here.  It would be interesting to imagine how it would have changed Trump's win.  

Back to Stringer.  The ranked choice strategy is to keep the liberal vote together, so Morales/Wiley -- make sure Morales voters also pick Wiley.  Stringer has a shot -- in a race that might be close -- to split the vote while not getting enough since the allegation caused him to lose key support. After all, the Working Family Party used to endorse him.  So, on the issues, he can be appealing.  But, other than being a tad bit boring, again he's tainted.  So, the fear is he will split the liberal vote.  It all can get a bit complicated and possible front runners might be hoping for also rans second or third choices.  Anyway, Stringer would be a bit depressing, Adams for another reason (too conservative) and Yang?  Please no.

One thing about other races.  The comptroller race is known now as the race that the current president of the City Council, Corey Johnson, is running in.  But, I see that my assemblywoman -- and current Bronx borough president choice -- is supporting Brian Benjamin. He's a black state senator who supported various progressive issues, including police reform.  Not exactly a financial issue as such, but that would be the type of person I would generally support.  Johnson was a bit of a later comer, perhaps can be seen as a johnny-come-lately who just wants another position because of term limits.  BB might be my first choice.

Public advocate it seems to be the incumbent and also rans.  So, I guess I'll have to think a bit more about city council (back-up option) and borough president (maybe -- looking at the choices, only one other one kinda looks okay).  Mayor?  Well, let's see how Scott Stringer survives.  Last time, the assumed front runner turned out to be an also ran.  Stringer had a major upset.  I thought he had a decent chance before that.  Now?  I guess I'm leaning toward Wiley winning though would not be shocked if she doesn't.  Still seems people aren't quite 'in' to an important race yet.

Morales-Wiley-Garcia-McGuire-Stringer for me now.  

Twitter Reactions: One left leaning type, a Morales supporter, flagged how third and fourth supported more police if MTA asked for them.  That would be a potentially damning thing for some left leaning types trying to fill out their ranks.  But, Stringer has other issues, so yeah, that won't change my mind yet.  

Another Twitter reaction, this time from the criminal justice reform Rachel Barkow, listed her choices.  She leads with Wiley and the rest also overlap with mine but she likes Shaun Donovan.  She leaves out Stringer though also noting her list is in part a strategic one.  She is strongly against Yang and Adams, which is also my concern as well.

Donovan has pushed his Obama Administration role and probably is okay on various things, but just doesn't excite me that much.  And, it is hard to see him being included as a strategic choice since he is such a longshot.  So -- as she noted -- if you are concerned about Wiley not winning, who would you include?  

I'd toss in Stringer for that reason.  Fifth.  I can see some second (etc.) choices there since he comes off as boring, experienced in local government and informed.  Maybe, being a white male will help a bit too. If Donovan had more positives, maybe, he would fill that spot.  But, Stringer also had more liberal votes going for him before and the pullback was the sexual harassment issue.  Some will deem that not enough, at least for back-up choices. Or, at least, that is my overall logic here.  

ETA:  I'm open to leaving Stringer off and it is really my remaining decision along with as noted also rans in a couple races.

Garcia, who would be a rather striking upset, has the striking benefit of not only second place ranking by one or more (though she rather Yang shut-up about having her on his mayoral team), but endorsed by both the NY Daily News and the New York Times.  She's my #3 now for being a woman as well as her previous experience.  

The DN don't like Morales/Wiley and now Stringer for being too liberal. The paper is basically Joe Lieberman Democrat in editorial style and that shows here.  They also like her experience.  Donovan has some of that, but like me, he rubs them the wrong way.  They are less turned off by Eric Adams (their second), since again, they are more conservative, but he has been "too erratic" and made a few questionable moves.

The NYT likes her problem solving ways. They are concerned about Adams' record and like their competition reminds he has supported police reform (he still doesn't earn me any marks by supporting stop and frisk and wanting to wear a gun as a mayor).  The sex allegations cloud things for them regarding Stringer (the paper is more center left Democrat).  The others seem unready to run a city.  Garcia: most qualified.

Well, I'm more left and reformist minded, so Morales/Wiley for me.  But, this helps me ranking Garcia third and if she works out to be the compromise choice between the wings, that would be okay.  

And More: AOC and Warren for who for comptroller? Guess maybe I have some more thinking to do. Do have time.