Mets Drop Out of First Place

I was on the bus most of the time, but checked the status of the final Mets/Marlins game from time to time. The Marlins was basically begging them to win the game. Multiple based loaded situations. They even had Mr. Clutch, Brandon Drury, on deck to tie it in the 9th (he got a measly run). 

But, they lost, helped by a "platinum sombrero" from their new Lindor replacement -- who is basically why they were at least not swept in the four game series -- that being five strikeouts.  Baez avoiding a tag and hitting a two run homer late to win it was nice.  The Mets need some hit for average players too.  And, that last game had two Marlins scoring, possible plays at the plate avoided.  Dropped their lead to .5 games.

The Phils, who managed to sweep the Nats but it wasn't easy, came in to decide first place. The Braves meanwhile has also decided to win games, helped by both the Phils and Braves actually making some major changes at the deadline [Mets got Rick Hill, who will give you five good innings, and Baez, who will amaze in the field, but strike out a lot], too. How dare they. Seriously. I like everyone was lulled to sleep by their mediocrity.

The Mets won enough, even with a bunch of injuries, to retain first place for 90 days. But, not any more. Winning enough is at least winning two vs. the Marlins. And, yeah, long winning streaks by your competition will hurt. Their pitching is mostly good, though the bullpen has been overworked, and not perfect (Diaz gave up the clinching two run homer). 

I fear they will falter a bit too.  Stroman going five yesterday didn't help. He pitched a gem against the Reds when they needed it.  Yesterday, they needed a gem too.  He gave them five with two runs.  The other starter gutted it out for six and (unlike Stroman, who was asked not to swing with the bases loaded to leave it to Nimmo ... who GIDP) got his first RBI as a MLB pitcher -- after nine seasons or whatever.  Phils have iffy pen too.

The Mets were not really expected to win this year, but struggles by other teams (including the Nats) gave them an opening.  Flaws and injuries (you have to deal with them, but well, they had a lot) limited the Mets chance to take advantage.  But, they did seem to have a comfortable, if not gigantic lead.  I admit to being complacent myself.  Oh well.

(My complacency was not totally unfounded.  They beat the Yankees and the Brewers.  They did okay against the Reds.  

But, then they went on a slide, including losing a series vs the Pirates, lucky not to lose more than they did.  Even then, that seemed a sign they would win enough.  Ditto the five game series versus the Braves.  

Braves won 3-2, helped by lack of Mets pitching.  But, that didn't seem enough.  Braves had to dominate.  Well, the Braves then did start a winning streak.  Oh well.) 

I have not really enjoyed the season since the competition seemed so mediocre. It was not like the Mets dominated.  They just was somewhat better.  They avoided a collapse in June like they had for at least two recent seasons.  Still, they had problems. And, deGrom needing to be out longer than we thought surely didn't help. Lindor struggling, and now being out (again), didn't either.  

Now, even people you expect to do more like Nimmo and Alonso (who out of the break seemed to be on a home run tear) are struggling.  And, beyond all that, all it would take was two wins (toss in at least one off their pen to feel good) for them to be a game and half in front on Monday with an off day.  Of course, the Dodgers/Giants would be tough even if you were playing better.  You take that as it comes though. 

The long season tends to balance things out.  So, it will be hard for Seattle (who are losing close games now to the Yankees, the other team looking up at the Wild Card) to stick around.  The Red Sox, who surprised, are struggling now.  Who would be shocked if the Yanks sneak in ahead of them and at least get a Wild Card slot over them?  And, either the Braves or Phils had a potential to get hot.

The Mets were playing on borrowed time in that fashion.  Again, in hindsight (or at the time, by some observers) their deadline moves are dubious.  Rick Hill is fine -- they needed to pick up someone to fill a back-end of the rotation slot until one or more guys come back.  Baez is iffy. They needed someone to fill Lindor's slot, and he gives you some pizazz and defense.  

But, the Mets need steady hitters.  And, when Lindor is back, they have McNeil at 2nd base.  I guess Baez can play third over the alternatives though you know Villar might be a better line-up piece.  More steady.  Plus, the Mets could have used more pitcher, including a reliever. They still were throwing out also rans in key situations. Plus, Hill gives you five, Stroman keeps on not being able to go long, and so on. I worry about a pen implosion ala one of the Mets collapses in the 2000s. 

It would have been better for Mets fans if the division was less weak until now, at least in a way that made many (other than the usual whiners on Twitter) fairly comfortable.  Who knows there -- I have not done a poll. But, just me, it was the Mets and also rans.  Not White Sox dominant, but still pretty good, especially when you were told "well, in 3-5 years, we expect winning it all."  

It also challenges you more.  How often did "bench mob" players do key things?  Maybe, more of them need to play, as the regulars put us to sleep. The manager got a lot of praise as they staid in first place with all the injuries. Let's see how he does now.  This "rut" -- to cite one player -- has been going on for a while.  And, you can't guarantee your pen will shut down the competition so much.  Got a bit greedy there too.

It's only early August.  The Phils swept the Nats, who gave up the season, only by outscoring them.  It wasn't easy.  The Braves have issues too. It's why (for now -- it's only 1/2 game) they are in third place.  But, both made some moves at the deadline, and the Braves have "we are a first place team" in their blood by recent experience (2020 aside).  

For now, I don't see either team winning the division by a comfortable margin.  It easily can go down the last week.  It is all "to be continued." For the Mets, they have to take it game by game.  Win at least one of the next two (two games and first place on Monday would be nice, of course) and somehow survive Giants/Dodgers for like thirteen games. 

And, remember they have a lot of games left vs the Nats and Marlins to make some games up.  Of course, they just were beat three games of four by the Marlins.  Baseball is about short memories. It also can be about some mid-season adjustments.  Let's see how that goes.  Will anything major happen there?  Lindor and some starting pitching appeared to give the team some immediate respect.  Since then, less so.

I don't expect anything BIG will happen -- the Phils went as far as putting their closer in the rotation -- but it might be argued that something should happen.  The deadline suggests it will not. They fired a hitting coach more because he didn't have the right mindset for those in management now.  Is the young manager a right fit for the team?  Again, after criticism, some have praised him for keeping the team together through adversity. 

I even saw someone on MetsTwitter (oh boy) suggesting they should DFA someone big. Conforto was one name tossed out.  I don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't be horrified. The guy is struggling. He will then give you a key hit or play, but his season-wide performance in a walk year (ugh -- an expensive long deal to me is a bad move) has been bad. DFA-ing him would be a serious statement to the team.

Or, they can just feel that they can gut it out, hope injured players will come back and ... someone else will get injured?  I come back to the opening expectations.  2015, when the playoffs was also not expected, is a telling contrast -- they struggled in the first half, but did not lead all the way or something. They had to sweep the Nats for that.  And, they got key players at the deadline, including a reliever and off the bench players.  

And, we have a rich owner now, who seems less risk adverse than the old ownership.  Guess that 3-5 year plan is still in place.

ETA: Their wunderkind rookie Megill is starting to show some cracks. Last time, it was an early grand slam. Now, it was four runs in the fifth.  Meanwhile, other than Megill's double, the Mets sleepwalked versus what was basically a Phils bullpen game.  For a while, they had one other hit.  

And, the Mets bullpen did their the usual -- pitched a lot (3.1 after Megill only pitched 4.2; they had no bottom of the 9th) and well (Diaz, not that one, gave up one run).  Up 5-1, the Phils trusted a weak link, who tbf did okay so far.  Who gave up three straight home runs (the three batter rule is in place). Some life!

So, they brought in the closer. Who gave up a hit.  Mixed in with a Nimmo walk (nice that he is back to form), the end result was the same. The Mets lose and won't be in first place on Monday.  Still need to win tomorrow! And, have life earlier in the game.   

... and the Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the 9th to the Nats, so the Mets don't fall to third place.  For the moment.