Biden Clinches and Some More Voting

Biden would have wrapped up the Democratic nomination much earlier, if not for the coronavirus pandemic — 15 states, along with Guam and Puerto Rico, postponed their nominating contests due to the outbreak.

With mail-in ballots taking time to be counted, maybe a prelude to November (but reports also that mail-in voting overall has gone well too), it took until last Friday for the results to come in to give Biden the delegates (1991) needed to officially get the Democratic nomination for President.  The article also notes that he would have gotten here soon if he didn't as an act of comity agree to let Sanders keep many delegates that under the original rules would be lost once Sanders suspended his campaign.  OTOH, without the Big V, Sanders very well might not have done that and continued to actively campaign for delegates.  The pandemic underlined the need to rally around Biden.  If so, I could see this thing extending at least to the late June New York Primary. 

Biden first ran for that office in 1988 and continuously did rather badly.  He did not even win a primary until this year in South Carolina.  But, for these times especially, it makes sense he is doing well.  In the past, he wasn't Grandpa Biden, the feel good former vice president of the first black president with a bit of extra pathos given his son dying.  And, though I really wanted a woman (guess I'll have to settle with the woman who -- knock on wood -- will be the first woman vice president), admit that is the will of the overall electorate and fitting the times.* A few women, especially Warren supporters, are still somewhat bitter, but his actions in recent days overall has gained even their respect.  As to the uncomfortable "too handsy there, Joe" stuff, the TR mess perhaps ironically has led people to feel uncomfortable about bringing that up.  Again, the vp will help. 

My concerns about his age hasn't disappeared.  But, so it goes. Also, the times fit an old comfortable figure as compared to the younger alternatives. As to concern he would be too complacent about Republicans, not totally over that, though others helped ensure his platform will be liberal.  He is after all a median Democrat there and the party has moved left even since the Obama years.  And, at times, he will continue to sound too safe.  But, him winning allows the overall sane brand to win too with more left leaning sentiments etc. getting more of a say and chance of being put in place.  His actions in the last few months suggests concerns about past presidential campaign troubles also only show so much.  He has handled being the presumptive nominee well, and though people will latch on to certain moments, Biden seems to be able to be trusted there.

I misjudged the situation somewhat, the Big V did influence things too, but stick by some of my early talk.  Primaries for people like me include pushing the non-median safe choice and his past campaigns etc. justified some wariness.  Anyway, I'm ready to be Biden2020.  

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Guam has been in limbo for a while now -- let's not forget about Guam -- but turned out to have a caucus along with the Virgin Islands (who actually was right on time) on June 6th.  It was  5/2 split for Biden/Sanders in Guam with Biden getting all seven in the Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, "In lieu of a primary, the Republican Party of Puerto Rico conducted an electronic referendum among party leaders on June 5, 2020, as the main event in its presidential nominating process."  Note the original rule here is cited as this: "If a Presidential candidate receives 50% or more of the island wide vote, that candidate receives all 23 delegates."  Marco Rubio got them in 2016.  Trump this time and the nature of the "referendum" might explain why the usual small percentage of non-Trump votes are not showing up.

BREAKING NEWS: Voters outraged because they can’t vote. @cbs46
Voting machines are down & systems aren’t working all over #Atlanta
Some people have left the polls because the line has NOT moved since 6 A.M. pic.twitter.com/QfJ8fxz5TQ

— Barmel Lyons CBS46 (@BarmelLyonsTV) June 9, 2020

Georgia (with long lines and rain some places) started early voting as Biden got those final delegates last Friday.  Problems with voting led to some calls that the governor was elected illegitimately.  Rick Hasen has done a bit of concern trolling on that (you are a big election rights advocate, but you can still be wrong about something).  Yes, such rhetoric can be overused (think the margin of victory was too large to deem the 2004 presidential election in doubt even with issues in Ohio).  There is some real issues here, however, especially (shades of Florida 2000) when self-interested parties are involved.  Even if things got better as the day progressed, many would say "the hell with it" and not vote.

(One article suggested a wider problem though Georgia is getting the most attention probably given the numbers and problem is bigger: "Voters encountered long lines in several states because of consolidated polling locations, including Nevada and South Carolina, where some polling places did not open on time and the polling place locator on the state’s website did not work properly, according to voting rights groups.")  

Anyway, Hasen has flagged problems in Georgia and it is something to worry about.  This is one theme here -- primaries provide tests to the more important elections in November.  Who is to know how the Big V will affect things there. Maybe, better, the same or whatever.  After all, the numbers of voters and stakes are higher.  There are multiple swing states where Republicans can cause problems in 2020 though Democratic governors will be of some assistance. There is still the unclear breadth of legislative power in presidential elections, which the faithless electors cases might confuse only more. What if some broad language regarding state power over electors is cited?  Or would it be "legislative"?  Over recent years, just what that means (is it an overall process with a governor's veto?), has been a greatly disputed issue up to the Supreme Court.

Trump fairly comfortably (50/45, poll data suggesting that sort of thing might be much more tight this time) won Georgia, but there are other concerns here.  One major race there is for one of the two U.S. Senate seats decided in November, the other a special election for the full term of the seat now held by tainted Kelly Loeffler.  Georgia is one of multiple June presidential primaries that were pushed back, including New Jersey that was originally June but was still pushed back until July.  Not that it will be the latest -- the final primary is Connecticut, in August!

Georgia and West Virginia has their postponed primaries today with New York and Kentucky having theirs in two weeks. Georgia would have likely been pro-Biden originally, shades of South Carolina while West Virginia might have been a place where Sanders had some success like in 2016.  OTOH, Biden could have appealed to the more conservative leaning Democrats there that chose the most conservative Dem in the Senate.  Various zombie candidates (including Deval Patrick) are on the ballot in today's two presidential primary states and the loose rules in West Virginia also brings some guy named David Rice (who ran before).  One thing all those candidates do is hurt Sanders' shot to get that 15% floor.

Looking at 270 to Win, all the precincts (to be careful, this might not mean all the votes are counted with paper ballots) reported in West Virginia and the split between the top two is 65/12 with Biden getting all twenty-eight delegates. David Lee Rice seemed like a sort of "none of the above" with eight percent of the vote.  Various others (Warren received three percent) split the rest, even Deval Patrick (.5%) gaining 1% if you round up.  This suggests, with the fifteen percent floor (otherwise, each delegate could have broke down to about 3% of the vote), some sort of instant run-off voting (using the term roughly) would have given a more accurate breakdown.  Many of that 35% might still have voted for Biden, but probably someone else would have received delegates  as well.

For completeness, have also tried to find Republican presidential primary numbers.  West Virginia shows old friend Joe Walsh is gone but not forgotten (he has endorsed Biden, right?), edging out Bill Weld a bit (splitting 3.5% of the vote) with others splitting 2%.  Recall there are other Republican races, if one wants to know why around 195K people are showing up to vote for Trump at all.   I don't see Georgia numbers yet but will update if I do.  As to the Dems there, listed at about 85% of the precincts reporting but the split is 83/10 there as a whole and the estimate is that of the 105 delegates, at least 97 will go to Biden.  I guess we can talk about instant run-off here too (can mean 10 or so delegates) but over 80% seems less notable here than not even a 2/3 floor.

[It looks like no one else but Trump was on the ballot in Georgia and there was no write-in option.  Only a few states, including New York, cancelled the Republican presidential primary.  The state rules for write-ins generally are harder than many states.  Also, by the end of Wednesday, Biden was estimated to get all 105 Georgia delegates with nearly 98% precincts with a 84/10 split with Warren getting the bronze with 2%.] 

Also of special note is that Jon Ossoff, who just missed getting another to win a majority for a special election in Newt Gingrich's all district but then lost a close head-to-head run-off, is the clear favorite in the Democratic senator primary.  But, there are so many also rans that even with a 48% plurality (as of now), he might still need a run-off. The next two both have 14% or so of the vote. IRV, please! (Looks like he did break the majority line. Now win it all!) Unlike the last time, it is hard to see him not winning a two person run-off, but it would be big waste of time with that breakdown.  We can imagine a different split (such as a real three person race) but that's just silly.  The Republican winner of the House race lost in 2018 but has a rematch (one of several), herself winning the primary yesterday.

I have focused on presidential primaries here but as seen last time there are also states voting for only non-presidential races too (New York normally would have split things up, e.g.).  Thus, Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota are also voting today.  And, a few of the local races as a whole were fairly close, one or more of special interest to some.  The next presidential primary is in two weeks and will involve New York and Kentucky. That is also the date of a few other southern state races. I see none that are scheduled before then though early voting is in place

Onward.

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* My wish was a woman candidate and went for Gillibrand, Harris and Warren there. Maybe, Kamala Harris will be v.p.  But, Gillibrand showed she wasn't really presidential material, Harris was green and never caught fire and Warren was a niche candidate that some really loved (while others at best saw her as a reasonable back-up).

Then, there were a bunch of also rans, one or more (like Castro) rather appealing but not likely.  A few -- when Biden looked like a goner -- latched on to Bloomberg, which on some level was more desperation than anything else.  Imagine that guy as the nominee with his stop and frisk policy this week.  Ha ha.  And, then there was Sanders, who some wrongly assumed was a lock but turned out again to be the gadfly with some important things to say while not really being ideal as a nominee.

In hindsight, Biden seems a lock here.  I admit to have been misled by his past failures, my own concerns/wishes and the belief another candidate would gain fire.  Kamala Harris seemed the best bet there though Warren did have some potential.  But, with special help from the black vote in South Carolina and other places, Biden was the one.  I accept it.