Primaries Continue & Dem Have A Convention

A witness requirement was waived for COVID-19 reasons as the government in Rhode Island agreed to a consent decree on the matter. This settled it for (one assumes) Roberts at least with the High Federalists still wanting the Republicans to have a stay. The difference, the Court actually explaining themselves a bit, is that the state wasn't challenging.  Meanwhile, not clear if the Biden Administration would take the same approach in a case that required an amicus.

Puerto Rico had trouble in its local primary, requiring another try.  And, Alaska, Florida (House alone) and Wyoming had congressional primaries.  Plus local ones; Alaska has a little wrinkle where Democrats and Independents welcome all comers while Republicans only welcome their own and undeclared/non-partisan.  As before, the final results might take time to arrive.  We shall see how that works in November. Also, some of these races have a lot of candidates. This is where a form of instant run-off voting would be a logical move. 

First, the Democratic National Convention (virtual) started on Monday night.  There is some grumbling that a convention doesn't even make make sense any more, at least this year.  I think it useful to have a chance for various campaign types to have a chance to meet together, even if it is virtually.  The first night was a bit hokey but had some touching moments.  I think it was fine to toss in Kasich -- yeah, you need to bring in independents and Republicans (Susan Molinari? wow -- flash from the past; pol from Staten Island). It was just a moment after all. Michelle Obama had a great speech with a "vote" necklace on. 

Here's some coverage of the New York delegates.  One political website estimates the split in New York is 220/54, between Biden and Sanders, other delegate count sites delaying a final count. There are also those two delegates in NJ.  Finally, it looks like Biden received all the delegates from Connecticut.  And, here's a bit of a surprise -- in Connecticut, with 90% or so of the precincts reporting, Trump actually has less than half of the votes! Over 35% of the vote is uncommitted, another 15% or so for the perennial Roque guy. Around 147K votes so far.  Good for those voters.

And, the latest is Cindy McCain will endorse Biden. 

ETA: Tuesday had a fun role call and basically it seemed that only Biden and Sanders had delegates, plus they did not match the estimated or whatever breakdowns. This is partially since superdelegates (who were included on the first ballot) were mixed in, but perhaps other things. Sanders, to take an example, had a delegate from D.C. now. Also, no Bloomberg from Puerto Rico.  

August Election News

As we wait for the last presidential primary (Connecticut) and Biden to pick a veep, state elections continue.

We can update past primaries: in Puerto Rico, Biden received 36, Bloomberg 10 and Sanders 5 delegates; for some reason two delegates (121 Biden/3 Sanders so far) are not allocated yet for New Jersey and fifty-seven in New York. This is after six weeks and has been flagged as a major concern. Legislation and litigation pending. Again, both mail-in and in-person is important. And, Let the People Pick the President overall does a good job for the average person to promote the national vote compact [what about territories?] and the problems with the current electoral college approach.

Local elections continue with five states having various notables including the safer Republican (for them) choice winning in Kansas, a squad member winning in Michigan and Medicaid expansion in Missouri. The imperfect Affordable Act Cases Medicaid screw-up fix continues. Locals less important nationally are also selected in these primaries.

More July Voting

After the Supreme Court went on summer recess,* lingering Big V related activity still went on. After all, the MLB has yet to begin. But, presidential primaries are running their course, with Biden (even on a lagging tracker) now having enough delegates to win in the first round with superdelegates taking part.  New York and New Jersey continued to count their absentee ballots.  Looks like Sanders (via strength in some district, since his state-wide numbers is under 15%) will get at least two delegates in NJ and around twenty in New York.  Oh, and sometime in late June without us realizing it, someone was nominated to the Life and Liberty Party.

And, Howie Hawkins (like the Libertarian Party nominee, a long term safely bland option) was nominated to the Green Party.  Well, that just happened last weekend.  On Saturday, only around three months late, Louisiana's results came in.  Lots of options, including someone named Robby Wells.  The "others" split around 20% with Sanders and Warren combined getting about half.  So, Biden received all the delegates.  Four "others" split the non-Trump vote, which here was about four percent.   Note for other races, there is one big "jungle primary," which means we might have a run-off in December. Fun fun. 

Puerto Rico Republicans had an online poll of party leaders in early June and selected Trump.  At first, it looked like maybe neither party would have an actual primary, but perhaps pushed by the courts stopping New York doing that, Puerto Rico eventually scheduled the Democratic presidential primary for Sunday.  Recall too that because of our stupid electoral college system, its U.S. citizens residents cannot actually vote for President in November.  This is so even though its approximately four million people is more than multiple state.  This is not getting the attention it deserves and while D.C. becoming a state is actually as close to being a thing as it ever was really should address territorial voting and interests as a whole. 

Anyway, though the 270 to Win etc. only has a few thousand voting, nearly all the delegates have been estimated. The joker here is that Bloomberg (both him and Sanders island-wide got around thirteen percent, but perhaps went over the floor in certain districts, which is also how the floor works)  got a couple delegates this time.  Not sure if this is from long ago ballots or if more recent people voted for him. The last time someone other than Biden or Sanders (putting aside apparently two unaffiliated delegates in Kentucky, maybe) received delegates was March 3rd. 

[NY aside.  Was it worth it to allow New York to have a presidential primary even though the results suggest Biden received most of the delegates and four out of five votes?  Yes.  A large chunk of the voters already would show up for other races.  Many of those who did not resided in upstate areas much less affected by the Big V.  Extended absentee voting was available and the extra work there is likely not excessive.  Things were better by late June, but they also could have limited in person voting even more if necessary.

OTOH, the voting very well could have been done better, including providing means (there was a 15% or so refusal rate by one estimate I saw) to allow correction of errors. The confusion was seen by the people at my polling place not even knowing at the start there were two ballots (the presidential ballot being added after litigation) and a message later in the day suggested that they weren't the only one. 

And, basic democratic principles warranted giving the people a chance.  Finally, not doing so resulted in feelings of being cheated that should be avoided whenever possible.  No other state -- though again Puerto Rico seemed to be thinking about it -- found it necessary to simply cancel the presidential primary.  As is, not having a Republican presidential primary was somewhat dubious.]

Tuesday involved other state races, which will continue into September.  Alabama (Republican) and Texas (both parties) had run-offs and the "let's get rid of Susan [Collins]" Maine congressional primary race.  Susan Collins herself is running unopposed.  Jeff Sessions is in his 70s.  Time to retire, big guy.  The race is ugly and let us recall that the move is (which people expect) to replace Sen. Doug Jones, who is a perfectly respectable honorable senator.  With some troll.  But, it's Alabama, so though I won't give up on it,  it's an uphill battle.

The main race in Maine is Sara Gideon vs. longshots to go after Susan Collins. An interesting bit of news there -- Bre Kidman is the first openly non-binary person to run for US Senate.  Texas has multiple races from earlier on because candidates did not receive a majority of the vote.  This is better really than some races in let's say New York, where a fraction of the voters (a House seat represents around three quarters of a million people) of the district decide things with maybe as low as around a third of the vote determining things.  That is a safe blue seat where the winner of the primary tends to clinch things.  M.J. Hegar or Royce West for senator would be the most important.  Maine has ranked choice voting so avoids runoffs.  BTW, there has been some talk that Biden actually has a chance in hell to win Texas.

[I'll update if there are any surprises in the top races. BTW, Trump's old personal physician is running in a House race in Texas.] 

Okay.  Well, there is now one (Connecticut) primary left in the presidential race but still a significant number of state races. I'll do a clean-up entry next month with the final numbers of races such as New York as appropriate. Bloomberg actually getting delegates suggests even now a bit of news is possible. Of course, the big thing will be who the veep will be.  Will not have scheduled entries for the state races, but they are important in various instances and overall given local government is quite relevant.

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* As seen by the death penalty cases, and there might be additional ones as more people are executed, summer recess does not mean inaction. So, e.g., the House asked CJ Roberts for accelerated action in the Trump case just decided.  The Supremes also put out the October calendar, basically filled with cases that was postponed from this term (which let us recall does not end until the first Monday in October).

Also, RBG is in the hospital again, raising the usual "OH.MY.GOD" comments.  But, have not seen anything that makes this any different than multiple other cases.  She's 87.  Yes.  But, we have to rely on her hanging in like she has for years.   

July Primaries Begin

We normally have primaries throughout the year into September, but this year we have presidential races pushed back with a few races in July and one in August.  I noted that enough votes have been counted in New York for 270 to Win to estimate that Biden now has enough votes to win on the first ballot even if the superdelegates took part.  OTOH, the AP delegate tracker does not include them [looking Wednesday night, it does now], so we have something to wait for there. Well, for those who are trying to find something to wait for in a race that basically was over in April at the latest.  Anyway, there is some concern that we don't drag this out this long in November.  

The races today are in Delaware (only presidential primary) and New Jersey (all federal races), but since they are mostly by mail, we will have another wait (says here about a week) on our hands.  Delaware has Biden, Sanders and Warren with Roque De La Fuente (who was nominated for three third parties, that I know of) is the anti-Trump option. Meanwhile, New Jersey [over 100 delegates] has Biden, Sanders and uncommitted while Trump is running unopposed.  We also have the Dem turncoat running in New Jersey.

A small sample of the Republican presidential result at 8:40PM actually has over 25% of it going against Trump.  Let's see how that holds, but the usual trend is around five percent with at most ten percent.  And, very early returns have Biden likely to get all or nearly all of the delegates in the two states.  But, we shall update things.  There are a handful of state and presidential races this weekend and next Tuesday.  New York will continue to count during this time.  And, then things skip to August with Connecticut as the last presidential primary state. 

Anyway, good Biden op-ed though the amendment idea is off.

Morning Results: The anti-Trump result in Delaware has dropped to 12%, which is still more than was in place generally.  Republicans have dropped a name, Tom Kean Jr. (his dad was governor, president of Drew University and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission), to regain a House seat.  Most of the races are not close, such as one competed race deemed settled (another Kennedy), but maybe Sanders (12%) still has a chance to win delegates in New Jersey.  Uncommitted is less than a percent there. Sanders received seven percent, Warren three in Delaware in early results.  Will update.

Primary Update: More Returns and Other Races

The increase of absentee ballots has the possibility to extend  elections and the early primary returns in Kentucky and New York were only preliminary.  Thus, yesterday, we had an official announcement that Amy McGrath won the Democratic "let's beat Moscow Mitch" Primary.  The margin of victory there (an over 40% plurality, which in a place like Georgia would have meant a run-off) was less than the votes from also rans. I'm somewhat concerned about such results and think instant run-off voting would be appropriate in such cases. 

The Kentucky returns led the 270 to Win website to estimate that Biden basically exactly (2376; exact would be 2375.5) has enough delegates to win in the first round even with superdelegates involvement.  Thus, we have another boundary passed though a more "official" count will come when the New York official results are dropped.  As of now, Biden won every delegate in Kentucky except for two, which is labeled at one site as "uncommitted," about 11% of the state as a whole that status.  An instant run-off approach could have helped Sanders some in Kentucky.  

There were three state primaries yesterday (Colorado, Oklahoma and Utah) with an assumed pick-up this fall winning the Democratic primary in Colorado though he has been having some issues of late including an ethics charge. Oklahoma passed a measure of special note: "At least 200,000 Oklahoman adults will be newly eligible for Medicaid, but program enrollment may climb even higher as the state's unemployment rate has surged to nearly 13 percent." OTOH, the eighty-five year old troll in the Senate is likely to comfortably win in November. 

While the other stuff is happening, third parties have also been picking their candidates.  In 2000 and 2016, third parties were of special concern.  This time around, there appears less of a chance, and a non-entity (sorry) winning the Libertarian Party nomination (Green has yet to be picked) is perhaps telling.  Who is to know -- some state very well might be so close that it will turn on these people.  As seen here, there actually are a range of third party options in various states and (is this is thing?) Rocky De La Fuente has been nominated for three of them. He is a perennial candidate and sort of a familiar fill in the blank sort there.

There are multiple primaries in a week span in early to mid-July and I will do a wrap-up after the last (Puerto Rico, Democratic) is over. And, we have some time to go before the New York votes all will be counted -- talking at least next week.  

Biden Clinches and Some More Voting

Biden would have wrapped up the Democratic nomination much earlier, if not for the coronavirus pandemic — 15 states, along with Guam and Puerto Rico, postponed their nominating contests due to the outbreak.

With mail-in ballots taking time to be counted, maybe a prelude to November (but reports also that mail-in voting overall has gone well too), it took until last Friday for the results to come in to give Biden the delegates (1991) needed to officially get the Democratic nomination for President.  The article also notes that he would have gotten here soon if he didn't as an act of comity agree to let Sanders keep many delegates that under the original rules would be lost once Sanders suspended his campaign.  OTOH, without the Big V, Sanders very well might not have done that and continued to actively campaign for delegates.  The pandemic underlined the need to rally around Biden.  If so, I could see this thing extending at least to the late June New York Primary. 

Biden first ran for that office in 1988 and continuously did rather badly.  He did not even win a primary until this year in South Carolina.  But, for these times especially, it makes sense he is doing well.  In the past, he wasn't Grandpa Biden, the feel good former vice president of the first black president with a bit of extra pathos given his son dying.  And, though I really wanted a woman (guess I'll have to settle with the woman who -- knock on wood -- will be the first woman vice president), admit that is the will of the overall electorate and fitting the times.* A few women, especially Warren supporters, are still somewhat bitter, but his actions in recent days overall has gained even their respect.  As to the uncomfortable "too handsy there, Joe" stuff, the TR mess perhaps ironically has led people to feel uncomfortable about bringing that up.  Again, the vp will help. 

My concerns about his age hasn't disappeared.  But, so it goes. Also, the times fit an old comfortable figure as compared to the younger alternatives. As to concern he would be too complacent about Republicans, not totally over that, though others helped ensure his platform will be liberal.  He is after all a median Democrat there and the party has moved left even since the Obama years.  And, at times, he will continue to sound too safe.  But, him winning allows the overall sane brand to win too with more left leaning sentiments etc. getting more of a say and chance of being put in place.  His actions in the last few months suggests concerns about past presidential campaign troubles also only show so much.  He has handled being the presumptive nominee well, and though people will latch on to certain moments, Biden seems to be able to be trusted there.

I misjudged the situation somewhat, the Big V did influence things too, but stick by some of my early talk.  Primaries for people like me include pushing the non-median safe choice and his past campaigns etc. justified some wariness.  Anyway, I'm ready to be Biden2020.  

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Guam has been in limbo for a while now -- let's not forget about Guam -- but turned out to have a caucus along with the Virgin Islands (who actually was right on time) on June 6th.  It was  5/2 split for Biden/Sanders in Guam with Biden getting all seven in the Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, "In lieu of a primary, the Republican Party of Puerto Rico conducted an electronic referendum among party leaders on June 5, 2020, as the main event in its presidential nominating process."  Note the original rule here is cited as this: "If a Presidential candidate receives 50% or more of the island wide vote, that candidate receives all 23 delegates."  Marco Rubio got them in 2016.  Trump this time and the nature of the "referendum" might explain why the usual small percentage of non-Trump votes are not showing up.

BREAKING NEWS: Voters outraged because they can’t vote. @cbs46
Voting machines are down & systems aren’t working all over #Atlanta
Some people have left the polls because the line has NOT moved since 6 A.M. pic.twitter.com/QfJ8fxz5TQ

— Barmel Lyons CBS46 (@BarmelLyonsTV) June 9, 2020

Georgia (with long lines and rain some places) started early voting as Biden got those final delegates last Friday.  Problems with voting led to some calls that the governor was elected illegitimately.  Rick Hasen has done a bit of concern trolling on that (you are a big election rights advocate, but you can still be wrong about something).  Yes, such rhetoric can be overused (think the margin of victory was too large to deem the 2004 presidential election in doubt even with issues in Ohio).  There is some real issues here, however, especially (shades of Florida 2000) when self-interested parties are involved.  Even if things got better as the day progressed, many would say "the hell with it" and not vote.

(One article suggested a wider problem though Georgia is getting the most attention probably given the numbers and problem is bigger: "Voters encountered long lines in several states because of consolidated polling locations, including Nevada and South Carolina, where some polling places did not open on time and the polling place locator on the state’s website did not work properly, according to voting rights groups.")  

Anyway, Hasen has flagged problems in Georgia and it is something to worry about.  This is one theme here -- primaries provide tests to the more important elections in November.  Who is to know how the Big V will affect things there. Maybe, better, the same or whatever.  After all, the numbers of voters and stakes are higher.  There are multiple swing states where Republicans can cause problems in 2020 though Democratic governors will be of some assistance. There is still the unclear breadth of legislative power in presidential elections, which the faithless electors cases might confuse only more. What if some broad language regarding state power over electors is cited?  Or would it be "legislative"?  Over recent years, just what that means (is it an overall process with a governor's veto?), has been a greatly disputed issue up to the Supreme Court.

Trump fairly comfortably (50/45, poll data suggesting that sort of thing might be much more tight this time) won Georgia, but there are other concerns here.  One major race there is for one of the two U.S. Senate seats decided in November, the other a special election for the full term of the seat now held by tainted Kelly Loeffler.  Georgia is one of multiple June presidential primaries that were pushed back, including New Jersey that was originally June but was still pushed back until July.  Not that it will be the latest -- the final primary is Connecticut, in August!

Georgia and West Virginia has their postponed primaries today with New York and Kentucky having theirs in two weeks. Georgia would have likely been pro-Biden originally, shades of South Carolina while West Virginia might have been a place where Sanders had some success like in 2016.  OTOH, Biden could have appealed to the more conservative leaning Democrats there that chose the most conservative Dem in the Senate.  Various zombie candidates (including Deval Patrick) are on the ballot in today's two presidential primary states and the loose rules in West Virginia also brings some guy named David Rice (who ran before).  One thing all those candidates do is hurt Sanders' shot to get that 15% floor.

Looking at 270 to Win, all the precincts (to be careful, this might not mean all the votes are counted with paper ballots) reported in West Virginia and the split between the top two is 65/12 with Biden getting all twenty-eight delegates. David Lee Rice seemed like a sort of "none of the above" with eight percent of the vote.  Various others (Warren received three percent) split the rest, even Deval Patrick (.5%) gaining 1% if you round up.  This suggests, with the fifteen percent floor (otherwise, each delegate could have broke down to about 3% of the vote), some sort of instant run-off voting (using the term roughly) would have given a more accurate breakdown.  Many of that 35% might still have voted for Biden, but probably someone else would have received delegates  as well.

For completeness, have also tried to find Republican presidential primary numbers.  West Virginia shows old friend Joe Walsh is gone but not forgotten (he has endorsed Biden, right?), edging out Bill Weld a bit (splitting 3.5% of the vote) with others splitting 2%.  Recall there are other Republican races, if one wants to know why around 195K people are showing up to vote for Trump at all.   I don't see Georgia numbers yet but will update if I do.  As to the Dems there, listed at about 85% of the precincts reporting but the split is 83/10 there as a whole and the estimate is that of the 105 delegates, at least 97 will go to Biden.  I guess we can talk about instant run-off here too (can mean 10 or so delegates) but over 80% seems less notable here than not even a 2/3 floor.

[It looks like no one else but Trump was on the ballot in Georgia and there was no write-in option.  Only a few states, including New York, cancelled the Republican presidential primary.  The state rules for write-ins generally are harder than many states.  Also, by the end of Wednesday, Biden was estimated to get all 105 Georgia delegates with nearly 98% precincts with a 84/10 split with Warren getting the bronze with 2%.] 

Also of special note is that Jon Ossoff, who just missed getting another to win a majority for a special election in Newt Gingrich's all district but then lost a close head-to-head run-off, is the clear favorite in the Democratic senator primary.  But, there are so many also rans that even with a 48% plurality (as of now), he might still need a run-off. The next two both have 14% or so of the vote. IRV, please! (Looks like he did break the majority line. Now win it all!) Unlike the last time, it is hard to see him not winning a two person run-off, but it would be big waste of time with that breakdown.  We can imagine a different split (such as a real three person race) but that's just silly.  The Republican winner of the House race lost in 2018 but has a rematch (one of several), herself winning the primary yesterday.

I have focused on presidential primaries here but as seen last time there are also states voting for only non-presidential races too (New York normally would have split things up, e.g.).  Thus, Nevada, South Carolina and North Dakota are also voting today.  And, a few of the local races as a whole were fairly close, one or more of special interest to some.  The next presidential primary is in two weeks and will involve New York and Kentucky. That is also the date of a few other southern state races. I see none that are scheduled before then though early voting is in place

Onward.

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* My wish was a woman candidate and went for Gillibrand, Harris and Warren there. Maybe, Kamala Harris will be v.p.  But, Gillibrand showed she wasn't really presidential material, Harris was green and never caught fire and Warren was a niche candidate that some really loved (while others at best saw her as a reasonable back-up).

Then, there were a bunch of also rans, one or more (like Castro) rather appealing but not likely.  A few -- when Biden looked like a goner -- latched on to Bloomberg, which on some level was more desperation than anything else.  Imagine that guy as the nominee with his stop and frisk policy this week.  Ha ha.  And, then there was Sanders, who some wrongly assumed was a lock but turned out again to be the gadfly with some important things to say while not really being ideal as a nominee.

In hindsight, Biden seems a lock here.  I admit to have been misled by his past failures, my own concerns/wishes and the belief another candidate would gain fire.  Kamala Harris seemed the best bet there though Warren did have some potential.  But, with special help from the black vote in South Carolina and other places, Biden was the one.  I accept it. 

Primary Update: Nebraska etc.

Twenty-nine Nebraska convention delegates were at stake in yesterday's primary. I will use this entry to cover various electoral related matters.

For instance, today the finale of the telephonic Supreme Court arguments (no orders on Monday even though there was a conference on the previous Friday) involved faithless electors. As one might recall, Bush won in 2000 with four more electoral votes (really three but a D.C. elector submitted a null vote to call attention to something or other, nothing if the vote mattered, it would have gone to Gore). The two cases were split because Sotomayor recused in one because she is friendly with a party.  The tenor of the arguments suggest a majority will find a way to avoid denying the states power here though a few justices might disagree somewhat.

[Somewhat relatedly, Aimee Stephens, a party in one of the GLBT employment cases has died though like a religious liberty case argued this week, I gather her spouse still has standing regarding damages or the like.]

Also, for now, New York will have a presidential primary pursuant to a district court ruling overturning its cancellation.  The state is appealing though the opinion (basically resting on First Amendment grounds) seems sound.  As noted, even if the candidate is a given, the election is “also serves to determine the party’s principles and goals through the adoption of a platform.”  Either way, by some measure, Sanders would get some sort of fraction of New York delegates by agreement, but here the voters decide.  Even if allegations of specific anti-Sanders (or primary challengers) bias is overblown, refuting that sort of thing is also helpful.

The decision seems to leave open in-person voting but not sure if that is compelled -- Andrew Yang surely seems to think mail-in voting would be acceptable.  OTOH, even if the same number of regular polling places need not be open if it is unsafe, some in person locations is likely important.  And, showing that the technicalities of New York elections still has some ability to pop up (if not quite like one person who might have had her name kept off the Democratic ballot) in inane ways -- AOC had too few signatures to get on the Working Family Party line.  She really should have made sure to have a few extra, given how these things go, but as her campaign notes, it doesn't really matter.  After all, we are talking a new limit of fifteen.  But, it still is rather silly, especially since there are no other candidates for that line.

(Here is another picayune ruling by a lower court  that turns on a filing a day late in the middle of a pandemic, the person in the hospital and clashing with a law that changed in midstream.  There are going to be asinine applications of the law but New York seems to have this happen too often. The legislature might want to clarify things some more.)

Indiana was due to vote on May 5th but postponed. Wyoming also voted for various Republican races, causing some controversy.  It is to be noted again that though presidential races might be handled separately, especially this year, there is usually more races than the now mostly sealed (again except for convention delegates and the chance to vote) presidential races.  This would also include Nebraska, which has in person voting if with special rules for social distancing, not using rest rooms or providing voting stickers.  Recall again that Nebraska is the one state with a unicameral (one house) legislature with each member called "senator."

Nebraska ran a caucus system in 2016 but per party pressure was one that shifted to a primary.  Wyoming did so for Big V purposes, having a mail-in primary.  Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota and some territories did or plan for now to have caucuses.  Puerto Rico has not re-scheduled its primary and if there isn't any, Biden would likely get most of them though some agreement might be made to provide some to Sanders.  The rules originally would strip Sanders of lots of delegates for suspending but Biden agreed not to have that occur. So, even if New York has no primary, it is unlikely in the end that all 200+ delegates would go to Biden.

Results. Again, there were other elections (and a vote on a bond issue) with Kara Eastman, e.g., getting a second chance to beat the Republican House candidate (she lost in a close race last time).  She is the more left leaning candidate though I have seen some suggestion she compromised a bit to gain support.  This is Nebraska.  Sanders won Nebraska in 2016; this time it does not appear he even met the 15% floor (there is no instant run-off voting, so Warren's six percent and Gabbard's 3% was key -- Sanders received 14% so surely could have received around four delegates in another system -- a small matter here but suggestive of how election procedures do matter).  So, 29 more delegates for Biden.

Next Tuesday: Oregon.  Kentucky postponed. West Virginia was also originally  yesterday but postponed. 

Primary Update: Kansas and Stuff

Reason number x why we need to get rid of Trump -- the Administration is refusing to let National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci testify in front of a House Committee.  Maybe, they should just have SNL stand-in Brad Pitt testify for him. This is fucking asshole behavior even without the stakes, besides being a form of obstruction of Congress.  They should impeach him or something. 

If things went on schedule, the primary season would have basically over somewhere in April, needing to deal with Trump helping to convince people to really around Biden.  This already was happening by mid-March, but we do not have winner take all primaries, so it still was going to require April for Biden to rack up the votes.  Without the stress of the Big V., there was a good chance Sanders would not have suspended, even though there would have been a similar delegate gap by April 1st. with more March delegates going to Biden.  As things went, we back-loaded things, with  over 1200 delegates to be apportioned after May.

April was to end with New York and related primaries.  Now, for now, New York won't even have a presidential primary and Ohio (postponed from March) provided more than half of the limited delegates in that month. May only has 160 total, Kansas and Guam scheduled today.  Thus, Oregon with around sixty delegates is at this point over a third of total for the month, which at this point is an also ran (Wisconsin was a story for a horrible reason; Ohio for a somewhat better one in comparison).  But, politics continues, and without sports, it is one more reason to "scoreboard watch."

(Here is a take on the first press conference from the new Trump press secretary, who is by chance the wife of former Mets reliever, Sean Gilmartin.  His forte being back-end reliever; her, troll.)

Regionally, the split this month is Kansas/Nebraska (68 total), Oregon (61; originally potentially a Sanders goal) and Guam/Hawaii (31 total; originally April).  Actually, trying to find news about Guam, it looks like they postponed what was originally listed as a caucus.  Guam was a bit of a footnote in the whole USS Theodore Roosevelt controversy.  To remind, Puerto Rico also postponed indefinitely, Virgin Islands is due in June, Sanders over Biden 4/2 in North Mariana Islands and Bloomberg over Gabbard (her only delegates) by the same in America Samoa. And, let's not forget Democrats Abroad, which Sanders won nine to four but Warren did receive over fourteen percent of the votes, so really deserved at least one delegate.  Missed floor.  Instant run-off people!

(Something like forty thousand votes were involved in that last little known primary, about double the ultimate votes in Alaska. Also, about five percent were split around the also rans in this case.  The instant runoff option here is less important than when more people and delegates are at issue, but it is an example of the "waste" that can occur and how borderline vote counts just missing cut-offs can result in loss of delegates.)  

Kansas went with all mail-in voting and it was seen partially as a sort of test run for November.  Maybe, New York should have kept that in mind and not basically cancel primary elections is those more thinly populated counties that only had presidential primary elections.  This is the sort of wrinkle, other than giving the people the chance to do their basic right and duty as citizens in a democratic republic (not begrudging the others), that suggest these races still provide some purpose.

The candidates are Biden, Sanders, Warren, Gabbard and Uncommitted.  May 2nd was the final day for mail-in voting but the results were not available until Sunday.  Kansas went with a ranked choice approach with a fifteen percent floor.  I noted above that Warren in one race might have obtained a delegate (or two) if things were handled differently in certain race. But, this depends on the system.  So, here "Biden was the first choice of 70% in the first round, compared to Sanders’ 18.1%. Warren drew 7.8% and Gabbard 1.1 %. A remaining 3 percent of voters were uncommitted as their first choice."  The final result: "After the ranked choice process was complete, Biden had 76.9% to Sanders’ 23.1%."

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article242468411.html#storylink=cp

Read more here: https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article242468411.html#storylink=cpy

We recently held news that Rep. Amash was seeking out the Libertarian nomination.  It looks like third parties are already have begun to nominate people.  Perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente was nominated for the Alliance Party.  The Constitutional Party chose troll Don Blankenship, a familiar name as well.  Libertarian is due later this month, Green later on.  And, there are others listed at that last link.  There is a standard comment that Clinton won the popular vote over Trump.  But, in 2016, the third party vote was more than the margin of victory.  And, unlike 2000 (Gore/Nader had a clear majority), the ultimate split there is a bit unclear.  An instant run-off system would basically turn on the Libertarian vote.  People skip over that part though in some other context would support IRV.

(That link also clarifies what I saw regarding Biden having hundreds more delegates.  Apparently, some are counting superdelegates pledged to him. But, I'm going with the "pledged" delegates at the 270 to Win website.) 

I bet one didn't think there was that much more to say at this point, huh? Telephonic Supreme Court orals soon ...

NY Presidential Primary Cancelled

According to multiple reports, Douglas Kellner, co-chair of the New York State Board of Elections, received thousands of emails from Sanders supporters pushing for the primary to continue as planned.

“What the Sanders campaign wanted is essentially a beauty contest that, given the situation with the public health emergency, seems to be unnecessary and, indeed, frivolous,” Mr. Kellner said.

The new NY budget, which my assemblywoman and senator voted against, had a provision that allowed the Board of Elections to cancel the presidential primary (which was originally scheduled today but then postponed to late June to take place with local elections) if there was only one active candidate. This was done after Sanders suspended his campaign though he now says that he wouldn't have done it if he knew such a law would be passed (in his announcement, he still sought to get more delegates via upcoming races).  But, he wasn't the only one who responded strongly against the move (Chris Hayes, Stacey Abrams, Cynthia Nixon, more than one member of the assembly and various others did as well).

Over the years, the race was basically decided when New York voted, but I still wanted a chance to put my vote in. And, most races are not competitive.  Not that competitive race results in broad voter involvement -- only a small fraction took place in the AOC race and a close DA race in Queens (district attorneys not subject to the new city instant run-off voting rule) also led to something like ten percent turnout.  And, unlike the average election, at least one loser does get something here -- Sanders would get delegates, which now would have to somehow be apportioned by DNC rule (per a Washington Post article).

On principle, I was wary about the state cancelling the Republican Presidential Primary, but that was by rule because a candidate other than Trump had to get minimum state-wide support to get on the ballot.  I don't see it too sensible that -- especially if you are going to have an election anyway for the Democrats (at that time) -- a major party would not still get a chance to write-in there.  Here, per the NYT article,  "about 20" (of 62) counties will not have any other primary race (which is a a bit sad; AOC has a primary opponent) on that date, and even beyond that, there might be some who just show up to vote for president.  So, there is some effect here, though you have around forty counties, where there will be a race anyhow.

But, what is the health emergency grounds for doing this?  New York by constitutional rule limits absentee voting, but the governor by executive order determined that the BOE will send an application to each registered voter to request one for cause.  Apparently, just sending a ballot without that is not possible, which is not hard to believe given the state's election rules are still somewhat convoluted.  The problem with using mail-in votes, again noting 2/3 of the counties will still have elections, to allow everyone registered who wishes to vote for president is unclear.

It will to some extent require more staff hours, but is that really that problematic?  Again, even there, it is unclear how much more effort it really will entail since many of the most populated areas like NYC will already have races in many places. The importance of allowing people to vote -- call it a bit irrational to care if you like -- here seems rather high too.  There is a chance apparently that there will now be a court battle. That too requires resources.  And, the distrust this advances should generally be avoided, if all possible.  Yes, this is not like cancelling the November election or something though even a tiny aid to trolls there is also not good.

I rather hope that this is changed though yes I won't be too crushed if my chance to vote for Elizabeth Warren (like my chance to vote for Dean or Edwards) is taken away from me.  Anyway, with lots of elections (other than Puerto Rico, at least for now officially scheduled) back-loaded to June with a few in May, today is when Ohio turned out to officially vote instead of March.  There will be very limited in person voting, but mostly by mail.  But, the complete official results will not be known until early May.

Voting is a special act, even if the person you vote for will not win. Protest votes there at times are ridiculed (the whole third party deal), but again, it isn't even merely symbolic here. In these times, basic republican (small 'r') acts are if anything more precious.  Thus, e.g., we have many PSAs on filling on the census.  Letting each person, by mail if warranted (if opening polling places just for this purpose is seen as frivolous), to submit their primary vote for president here to me is something each voter has the right to ask. I hope this decision is changed.

Andrew Yang has sued over New York along with seven registered NY voters pledged to him.  The lawsuit in federal court starts with the famous Benjamin Franklin quote on us having a republic, if we can keep it.  Part of the concern here is that the people involved are running to be delegates to the Democratic National Convention, which again is not simply a "beauty contest."  It argues a federal lawsuit is the most practical approach.  It notes the counties with no other races are more thinly populated areas that are less liable to get the virus anyhow.  And, it argues that the move will suppress the vote in other races, races that tend to be less supportive of mainstream party members.

I think they have a good case but probably an uphill battle. There is time especially since I saw one reference that ballots will be mailed late May for the late June election. Though Puerto Rico, for one, did not reschedule their presidential election yet, no other state so far is doing this. This is not just burdening voters (Wisconsin) but cancelling while was going on, again denying candidates the chance for delegates and delegates a chance to represent the party.  And, the voters. 

[I added the lawsuit information and put the Ohio results in another post.]

RIP: John Pine, Sanders' campaign & Wisconsin Electoral Legitimacy

Stephen Colbert, who had a great interview with Conan last night in part bonding over their scientist fathers, recently wished this singer well as he was reportedly put on a ventilator.  Unfortunately, he has died.  I was not familiar with his work, but can see why he received so much respect.

==

(The young photographer had a moment of fame.) 

The main blame for the election f-up in Wisconsin yesterday ultimately is in the hands of the Wisconsin legislature, who had a chance to work with the governor to address the situation, particularly by agreeing to postpone. The U.S. Supreme Court and probably to a lesser extent the state supreme court worsened the situation, but they were dealing with an imperfect means to address the problem that the legislature created and aggravated.  This should be remembered in November and as more is done on the federal level to help address and prepare for the problems that in some fashion will arise  in the November elections. This was bad.  A major FU to democracy and basic decency.

===

Sanders suspended his campaign today, perhaps pushed by talk that Biden is vetting vice presidents and the clusterfuck of Wisconsin.  Listened to his statement, followed by a nice statement from Biden. 

He spent most of the time promoting his message and saying it has had success in the polls among younger voters. Then, he dealt with the reality of him not having a realistic chance of winning & suspending his campaign.  He did note he will stay on the ballot (and the rules as I understand it require that if he already registered though someone told me Warren sued to remove her name in one state) and that collecting delegates is important to have a voice.

This last part rubbed me the wrong way since it encourages bad mouthing of Biden and risky trips to the polls by some of his supporters.  Anyway, thanks Sen. Sanders and hope you and your supporters will, as you say, deal with the threat of Trump and help Biden and other Democrats win in November.  We need to focus on Biden winning and stop whining about how we are upset he is the nominee (I get it) and his problems.  OTOH, I do kinda still want to vote for Warren in June.  Give me that. 

===

A small reminder of just what is at stake is the new press secretary (though not sure what they do now -- the last one had not a single press conference; guess was mostly crafting troll press releases) and baseball wife (Sean Gilmartin used to be a Mets AAAA reliever).  A taste from that article:

For instance, in a video of Ms. McEnany on the Fox Business show “Trish Regan Primetime” from Feb. 25, circulated by Andrew Kaczynski of CNN, the new press secretary said, “We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here, we will not see terrorism come here, and isn’t that refreshing when contrasting it with the awful presidency of President Obama?”

Since Ms. McEnany made that statement, about 400,000 people in the United States have been infected with the coronavirus.

She has at times trafficked in the type of “othering” of President Barack Obama that Mr. Trump once did by promoting a lie that the first black president, whose father was Kenyan, was not born in the United States. “How I Met Your Brother — Never mind, forgot he’s still in that hut in Kenya. #ObamaTVShows,” Ms. McEnany tweeted in 2012.

The old "press" secretary will now work with Melania Trump.

2020 Race Update

I said to check back with me on April 1st but to be clear Tulsi Gabbard actually dropped out and endorsed Biden. There is some strong disdain for Sanders, earned to some degree, but ultimately a problem here is that so many (including himself and his supporters) actually got it in their mind he was a credible general election candidate. I never really saw that even if no one was in a strong postion pre-South Carolina. There was always a strong anti-Sanders feeling, just a question of whom would benefit. It taking so long for it to be clear Biden was it suggests people like myself dubious weren't just wishing and hoping.

People are pushing for Sanders to suspend. Me? I still sorta am not appalled that he is not though the virus suggests it is time to just bite the bullet. With a candidate in his late 70s, it is good to have a vice presidential candidate and doing other things to in effect have a united "shadow" opposition which is difficult when the campaign is still going on. As of now, there are minor races in early April so with social distancing, we would have a sort of limbo anyhow. Hopefully, there is some behind the scenes reaching out to Biden supporters. It also might be time for Warren to endorse. Maybe that too is of little notice.

One other thing is that some think Sanders needs to stay in to be in reserve. He might seem more spry, but he is the one who had a heart attack. Plus, if something bad happens, I think someone more Biden-like would replace Biden. Who that is hopefully just of academic interest. Anyway, get back to me in early April.

Presidential Race Update: March Ends Early

Various delays, including Ohio at the last minute in dubious fashion. General thoughts well summarized here and see in general Election Law Blog (e.g., he thinks the Ohio move was done in a horrible way even if you grant it was valid on the merits). We should have had clear rules in place to deal with these exigencies, including extended voting by mail (wary of using it completely, but these are special times), and need to address it right away. Including by national legislation, Congress specifically having power over federal elections.

The final March races were Florida/Illinois/Michigan and Biden continued his dominance [270/130 or so] though young voters (sometimes up to those under 45) favored Sanders; big problem is so few actually voted. I'm continually amused looking at also rans vote totals, including obscure candidates. As to sending a message, that is a way to do so too. If New York lets me, still want to vote for Warren. Do so by mail. Need another "Biaggi Bill" (my state senator). Looks like Trump has the delegates necessary to be the nominee. Shocker there.

I understand states delaying the elections, but again, should be done in an orderly/legal fashion; plus, the norm should be to try to allow people to do the basic part of democracy: voting. Vote by mail etc. And, it is not totally a non-issue just because Biden is a lock. People vote in safe districts etc. I saw some reports Sanders is suspending his campaign but without primaries until April and social distancing etc., in the short term, would do that anyway in a fashion. I'm okay if he doesn't totally suspend though then keep on seeing his supporters bashing Biden (dementia! a thing). And, no, not just "trolls."

Presidential Race Continues

There is talk that Sanders should just drop out given the virus and concerns about voting. But, I still think it is okay to have him debate with Biden as means of engaging with him (just saw that Biden basically signed on to Warren's plan that would make their big split over the bankruptcy bill old news; that happens because he is getting pressure from his left and he's trying to support a median position). Sanders dropped basically a sort of home test at the end of his post-Baby Super Tuesday remarks, talking about what he will ask Biden about. Fine.

And, though Sanders very well might ride this to the convention, which to me is a bit much unless it is somewhat pro forma (especially with some of his more bothersome supporters actively bashing Biden hard), it is fair really to give him some time when there is a lot more voting. Yes, this is true even though there is little chance he will catch up, especially with zombie supporters who endorsed Biden providing nearly 100 delegates in reserve. It's really part of the process. Could be a lot shorter, but acceptance is a process.

We saw people impatient with Biden doing well in South Carolina alone being key. March as whole has a lot of delegates and not just on "Super Tuesday." This Tuesday actually has more delegates than last with Florida alone over 200. Today Sanders won Northern Marianas Islands, 4 delegates to 2 (sorry Tulsi, Biden got both). After Tuesday, there is Puerto Rico at the end of the month. Perhaps, get back to me regarding Sanders on April 1.

Baby Super Tuesday

Eleven Democrats have filed paperwork to appear on New York’s presidential ballot. Under a Democratic Party rules change for 2020, presidential hopefuls cannot request to have their names removed from the ballot after filing with the state Board of Elections, according to New York election officials.

So, it sounds like Elizabeth Warren will still be on the ballot when there is a presidential primary at the end of next month. Michael Bennet will be as well, but not Kamala Harris. Seems silly to not allow these also rans to take their name off, but presume it might cause problems somehow to do that.

The article references Bill Weld trying to get on the Republican presidential ballot, but he did not meet the rules, so there will not be a Republican presidential primary.  My suggestion was that Michael Bloomberg should have ran a primary challenge to provide a protest vote mechanism to harm Trump and (New York isn't the only state that cancelled the primary here in effect based on a minimum support test)  probably would have qualified most places.  This is how things went in the past, such as Uncle Pat running in the 1990s.  And, we really needed something like this in 2020. In 2016, even near the end, people still had a shot to vote for John Kasich or something.  As I recall, you did have a few cases where a quarter or whatever of the voters did not vote for Trump even in May and June.

There will be special elections on that day, which as the article notes, bothers (at least officially; who knows if they really think it matters) some who figure the absence of Trump will limit turnout (as if special elections ever really have significant turnout).  Though New York streamlined things somewhat, having state/federal elections on the same day, the presidential election cycle does add another layer. Alabama, e.g., had the federal senator race on Super Tuesday (resulting in a run-off) while New York (and places like Maine) have a separate set of elections, late June here.  Some state races of note there. 

Elizabeth Warren suspending her campaign, but not endorsing anyone yet (Cory Booker is the latest for Biden; Marianne Williamson is still for Sanders while Tulsi Gabbard is still running) led the Working Family Party to need to make a choice as well.  They chose Sanders, which is not too surprising though I personally would not go that route.  Since Warren has yet to endorse, and her supporters seem to if anything split down the middle, it might have at best been worthwhile to stay neutral.  But, particularly with important races right away (Michigan being cited as a sort of last ditch by some), guess the party felt a need to do this.

Okay, having written the above beforehand, let's go to the results. They are mostly as expected.  Biden did very well in Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi.  (The bad odds for Sanders is suggested by Sanders winning Michigan 52/48 in a different environment in 2016; Biden won 53%, Sanders 36% with the rest split.)  He won Idaho while Sanders won North Dakota.  The leaves Washington, which is basically split in thirds now (Biden/Sanders/other with Warren/Bloomberg/Other again splitting things three ways).   The proportional voting makes the wins less complete but it also makes it rather hard to see Sanders (a wash in many remaining states is asking a lot, especially delegate rich places like Florida) catching up even if the delegate differential (under 200) looks not hopeless. Remember too that "zombie candidates" who endorsed Biden have nearly 100 delegates too.

As some note, it is likely a bad idea to simply decide to "end things now" for a variety of reasons.  For one thing, like Warren not endorsing anyone right away, a greatly divided electorate needs time to move on.  Plus, we are around fifty percent of the voters having their say so far.  Why wouldn't the rest, at least in the short term, want to have their chance to make their wishes known?  Elections are not just about winning the final count or the losing side in safe districts would have little reason to vote.  As to concerns about the coronavirus, that is a reasonable thing, but there should be a way to allow people to vote.  Absentee voting is broadly allowed many places. Some ad hoc mechanisms can also be passed to deal with the emergency. 

It also seems logical to let Biden and Sanders debate at least once more.  Let them engage.  The voters are strongly split, including by age, and a means to engage like that makes sense. Yes, Sanders should try not to make it too ugly, just as Biden last night welcomed his support and said it wasn't over. That he would aim for every vote.  And, yes, voters can be emotional more than rational.  Talking about odds will not settle the day there.  It is good to push for unity and respect.  Yes, it is tedious to hear about how Sanders is god's gift to things like cheaper health care as if this wasn't something promoted by the left wing of the party, or the party as a whole (note the meaning of "PPACA"), for years now. 

One person provided an in depth discussion of how our primary system holds back candidates unfairly, but net, it is unclear how much that really mattered.  A range of candidates (hey look! Sestak got some votes in Michigan)  had little route to success in the end as a whole even if we had a better system. Which I'm sure we can have -- a shorter and more evenhanded by region primary season seems quite possible -- but Sanders was a dubious candidate as a whole.  Sanders supposedly was aiming for a "30%" strategy of getting a plurality and having the rest split the difference. That isn't a great path to coalition building, I think, especially since he could not obtain a basic part of the Democratic coalition (blacks). 

Biden had various strengths there even if I didn't like him in various respects.  And, Warren didn't have his long term security (including as Obama's vice president) among other things. Yes, sexism hurt her. But, it wasn't the only problem. I still would have liked to see a Biden v. Warren match-up.  She very well might have still lost since the people as a whole are cautious and saw Biden as a safe experienced kindly grandfather type while Warren is newer, more wonky and basically more of a risk. Sanders was running a second time.  Sexism alone doesn't make that a plus.

Anyway, the path was apparent before yesterday's "Baby Super Tuesday" races with only a little room for improvement (if the same basically happened and Sanders did better in Michigan, a sliver of votes in one state matters how much?). Some made out that Sanders was the frontrunner for a time.  A rather small time, if one was careful.  Other than Nevada, what warranted that?  South Carolina was rather predictable. Other than Nevada, there clearly was a strong "not Sanders" movement and it was just a matter of how united it would be.  Warren helped show Bloomberg was surely not the answer there.  Buttigieg/Klobuchar were not really likely.  That left Warren, but though some did in their heart see her as a good second choice, they were cautious and she like Sanders couldn't get that black vote either.

The path forward seems apparent -- Biden will be even more so be seen as the presumptive candidate which will help in those states more divided while states like Florida will go to him naturally.  The proportional drawn out system in place will mean this will take time.  Two-thirds of the delegates will be allotted by the end of this month, but Biden at this point needs over 1000 delegates more.  The time can be spent promoting his message and working to unite the party behind him.  Biden as a median figure is helpful there since it will mean the left will get some stuff in the deal.  A (black) woman vice president also will help with Warren supporters.  Of whom, I'm one ... I vote the end of April.

Super Tuesday

And Also:  India Citizenship Law. John Oliver recently talked about India's leader (Trump guy) and its anti-Muslim leanings of late; went to a lecture about the troubling new citizenship law yesterday.  India was founded on secular and equal protection principles; this more is troubling.  This ruling about a Hindu holy site was flagged too.  The lecturer also was involved in big sodomy case that was mentioned on Gay USA.  So, you know, I can say that I have limited knowledge about these things.  India has over a billion people, so is of some interest.

(A discussion of United States constitutional law on Twitter flagged the diversity of constitutional law world-wide, India being a notable example.)

===

My sentiments remain: Elizabeth Warren is the best option of the pool if we care about basic competency, but that isn't all that matters, obviously.  Also, I wanted to wait at least to Super Tuesday, not relying on about four percent of the delegates.  (There remains over 60% even once California is counted.)  A bit naive, I guess, since Biden's strong South Carolina win was a bit of a dominoes falling moment.  Steyer dropped out (yawn) but then Buttigieg/Klobuchar did (and, hey, it's Beto! remember him?), endorsing Biden. Plus, Warren never showed much viability in actual contests, even if in their hearts, she might have been at least the second choice for Democratic voters. 

I early on said that I didn't like Biden as a nominee. My reasons were mostly substantive. I was wary about his ability in the general election, wariness that really hasn't completely changed, but it was not my primary concern. I opposed him on certain substantive matters. I also really wanted a woman nominee. Yes, I can see various reasons why Biden would realistically be the nominee. My primary image now is a kindly caretaker who can get us past Trump while allowing Dems to operate some including by picking judges. Plus, his vice president might be more notable than usual especially if we have a woman vice president. And, hey, a black woman on the Supreme Court.  At some point, maybe women Warren supporters will not be THAT pissed off.

(There is talk the Warren campaign is considering things -- doing badly in your home state will do that -- but there is a reasonable case that this can help Biden. On policy, she is more inclined to support Sanders, but Biden very well might be more likely to help actually get things done there. If Biden's people can craft a deal, Warren very well might prudently decide that she is better off -- eventually -- going his way. A bit soon though.

Warren was seen by some as the "moderate" candidate if Biden/Bloomberg was a no-go and in comparison to Sanders, this does make sense.  The "Warren VP" talk is simplistic -- don't risk the Senate seat and she would be more productive in her current spot.  Anyway, there is some bad blood between her and Sanders as seen in the whole "you can't win" deal.)   

I found it hard to see Sanders as a general election nominee. I respect the movement he supports, noting that doesn't mean certain flags should be ignored. But, as an actual general election candidate? Hard for me to see it. And, key people, not just "extreme online Bernie Bros," hurt him there. Including he himself.  Many actual on the ground activists can tell you how actual change comes with help of "the Establishment," for one thing. Then again, Sanders is a member of it -- unless some well off white guy in the U.S. Senate is not it.  Sanders and/or his supporters too often come off as angry assholes that do not do enough to address the hard work and compromise necessary for change.  Some are involved there but Sanders does not to me represent who we need on the actual ticket.  Gadfly.

Anyway, yes, hard to see how Sanders will win it even if there are 60% of delegates left. Biden got a plurality in Texas. Sanders got one in California,* but his margin is smaller than the Bloomberg vote.  Bloomberg has now endorsed Biden.  Sanders might do well delegate-wise without it really reflecting his popular vote numbers being handicapping.  RIGGED!  He will have trouble in Florida, another major delegate state. I hope Warren still will have a productive role here. I'll probably vote for her in New York. 

If it's Biden, again, this is the thumbnail take: "Kindly old caretaker who will get us past Trump, pick decent judges and sign some legislation while running things in a matter that isn't that embarrassing. Oh, maybe a black woman vp."  Hopefully, he will be the sort various powers that be, including in the media, are comfortable with, which will help somewhat.  And, yes, he will look old and frail at times. But, apparently, (insert latest reason here) a better woman is not a good fit.

Does Warren have a plan to help?  I vote in late April.

---

* It will take a while to count California, but trends seems to be visible. Bloomberg did badly as a whole, but here and there his vote count is notable. Take Colorado, one of the places Sanders won. Bloomberg received 21%. with Biden/Bloomberg approaching 50% numbers.  Bloomberg's big win was American Samoa with Gabbard getting a delegate too.  That is a bit tongue in cheek, but this is a footnote.

(Talking Points Memo has voter totals so you can have fun with obscure also rans getting a few votes. Also notable: Jeff Sessions, still being bad-mouthed by Trump, will need to face some former football coach in the Alabama senatorial primary.  I really hope Doug Jones has a real shot at hanging on.) 

South Carolina Primary / What is At Stake

Next week is Super Tuesday, which provides to me a real sense of where we are in the presidential race since unlike February, we are talking about a third or so of the delegates necessary to win. The first few races provide more limited evidence with around four percent.  Nevada provided some evidence of Sanders' support in a state with some diversity while today's South Carolina Primary is promoted as a sort of "firewall" for Biden.

I am strongly supportive of Elizabeth Warren, somewhat wary of her assumed negatives earlier on, thus supportive to some degree the likes of Kamala Harris.  But, we are past that moment, and even if I'm willing to imagine a Amy Klobuchar compromise (flagged that as a possibility early), doubt she has much of a shot even if she is the NYT "moderate" co-endorsee. More so than other years, I'm actively wary about the alternatives.  Was I ever so against a possible option as Bloomberg?  I don't recall so.  Yes, I'm aware of needing to support the ultimate nominee. When wasn't that a thing?  The stakes are higher now, but when was that not really a thing?  Other than a limited (if notable) number of Sanders caucus/primary voters, people readily say they will do so. 

But, let's keep in mind that the stakes shouldn't be as high as they are.  The clown show responding to the virus that some confuse with Corona beer just is the latest example of it being simply horrid that it isn't more widely accepted that Trump simply cannot be elected in a sane universe.  I saw reference to a somewhat more limited reason this should be so.

Two important things to note about the DOJ's support for the Free Speech claim of a wedding photographer against public accommodation law: 1. A new way of describing the claim 2. The erasure of eradicating sex discrimination as a compelling government interest. /1 Thread

— Liz Sepper (@lsepper) February 28, 2020

A strong support of this variety of discriminatory law should be something that leads some Republican minded sorts to oppose Trump as well.  Some other (we aren't lacking examples) policy related reason might be a better option pragmatically, but let's cover this.  It has a familiar ring.  Among the blogs that no longer allow comments (Concurring Opinions no longer exists) is a conservative leaning Catholic law related one that I and others pushed back upon in cases of this sort. 

Prof. Sepper notes that the Administration argues that even race is "maybe" enough to justify antidiscrimination laws, moving past even the counter to those who say race, sex and sexual orientation should be treated the same.  When the Supreme Court punted (about the best realistic option there even though the reasoning is dubious) in the cake case, this sort of question was left open. Now, we have the Kavauangh Court and even with more sane people in the White House, the constitutional test is up in the area.  Kennedy was the fifth vote in Hobby Lobby, as one recalls, and was the only conservative there that didn't merely grant the compelling interest to protect contraceptives rights.

Equality sanity as well as the courts are at stake in November.

"This Is Excellent News For Joe Biden"

I provided a late remark to a discussion involving Biden's performance at the last debate and some media commentators grading him on a curve.  I will include the comment with a bit added below.  Separately, I noted that I thought Sanders a useful candidate in 2016, if a protest candidate. That isn't a dig; it has a valuable function. But, especially as Warren hits her stride, not sure what value he has now.  Plus, people go after her to try to explain ("explain") otherwise. Bad look.

There are various reasons for Biden's support and as someone who strongly opposes his primary candidacy I do not ignore these things though am unclear about how soft they are.  This is something at times alleged: we are against him so do not want to admit why people like him.  As to the last point, a few shove positive poll numbers in our faces though the numbers fluctuate and especially early one it was unclear how strong they were.  Like the high poll numbers for POC -- when they vote in the primary, what will they do?  Will a tiny fraction vote for actual POC candidates? 

Stephen Colbert (who really wanted him to run in 2016 though has done jokes about his gaffes now) suggested Biden provides nostalgia -- you felt better before Trump and I'm that. This is somewhat mixed with some unsavory things as seen by some of his comments on race and so forth. (This is touched upon in the comments such as references to poor people that are implied to be really about black poor people.)  He also comes off as a nice guy to some people, safe old pol etc.

He also has Obama sheen (though from what I can tell, Obama himself is not that gung ho for the guy) which helps his POC support ('old white dude was a loyal soldier for a black guy' helps a lot here but so does a certain sense of realism, including cynicism about the chance of someone else -- a woman with a bunch of plans? that's nice, but they won't buy that, sorry etc. -- winning .. Biden is a loyal safe choice there and POC have shown some distrust of various reformers here including AOC and the reform DA that lost a close race in Queens).

But, I think he has various problems and if they are not handwaved (and some damn well seem to want to do it) too much, some of his supporters pragmatically if nothing else will be wary of him. Either way, the problems are there and I'm very concerned about them.  I really am. Before he ran, I pointed out (as did others) his problems and they just aren't his age (it is not "ageism" to point out his problems -- one person who generally is an intelligent fellow even said he thought the minimum age rule was stupid ... what 34 year old is going to have enough experience to be POTUS?!). 

I really don't want Biden to be the nominee. Warren or Harris, please.  I don't think he is a lock yet but this sort of bs soft-pedaling (as the link notes, viewers in general thought he did much more badly) is concerning. We saw this game before.

Democratic Debates

For me, the first Democratic debates were mainly a time to snark and read snark online, but to the degree it mattered: Booker was combative, Warren was pretty good, Castro shone, O'Rourke looked unprepared, Buttigieg was decent, Harris slayed and Biden (who Harris targeted, especially on busing) looked rather bad. Various others should, along with "Beto," just go. Klobuchar and Gillibrand didn't move the needle. And, Chuck Todd was an ass.

We have the "tsk tsk" about debating busing, how unpopular it was etc., but BIDEN is the one who got us here both for his record and bringing up good times with segregationists. Doh! The spin is a broad group likes him, but the controversy is rather expected and he handled it lousy. He repeatedly does. People like me are strongly against him for a reason. And, repeatedly, there is a feeling he is kinda tired. Old. Sanders should go too but he is at this like a lively old radical full time, basically. Biden is basically in semi-retirement.

Clinton Wins DC

And it's done.

Final Primary/Caucus Numbers

With but D.C. (D) left, we can summarize. There is about a 55/45 split among pledged delegates with Sanders in the end having a respectable finish, especially with starting expectations and doing so bad in Southern states. His combative approach got him far, but ultimately, Sanders supporters have a reasonable grounds to feel proud and think they helped in the long run. Bitter enders will exist but should be a statistical nonentity by November.

After Wisconsin, Kasich received a few more stray delegates than Cruz (NY helped), but never did quite past Rubio's totals. Meanwhile, unless there is some write-in upset or something, the Democrats are assured at least one win in the Senate races since the new California rules means two Democrats will be on the ballot in November. One estimate suggests a 3-2 split in toss-ups will result in a 50-50 Senate, underlining removing a senator to run as Clinton's veep is a really dubious move (choices seem to all be from states with Republican governors).

Anyway, it is also useful to note that of the minority that is the Republican voting block that took part in primaries/caucuses, only a plurality voted for Trump, helped by post-Wisconsin belief he was a lock anyhow and everyone else eventually leaving the race. In delegates, he received a clear majority, but winner-take-all rules and that late "it's done" surge helped too. Ultimately, Trump probably would have been the candidate anyhow, but current rules somewhat exaggerate his support. This plus the usual lag time for things to settle (e.g., Sanders votes to shift to Clinton) make current poll data misleading.