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This blog is the work of an educated civilian, not of an expert in the fields discussed.

Tuesday, July 07, 2020

July Primaries Begin

We normally have primaries throughout the year into September, but this year we have presidential races pushed back with a few races in July and one in August.  I noted that enough votes have been counted in New York for 270 to Win to estimate that Biden now has enough votes to win on the first ballot even if the superdelegates took part.  OTOH, the AP delegate tracker does not include them [looking Wednesday night, it does now], so we have something to wait for there. Well, for those who are trying to find something to wait for in a race that basically was over in April at the latest.  Anyway, there is some concern that we don't drag this out this long in November.  

The races today are in Delaware (only presidential primary) and New Jersey (all federal races), but since they are mostly by mail, we will have another wait (says here about a week) on our hands.  Delaware has Biden, Sanders and Warren with Roque De La Fuente (who was nominated for three third parties, that I know of) is the anti-Trump option. Meanwhile, New Jersey [over 100 delegates] has Biden, Sanders and uncommitted while Trump is running unopposed.  We also have the Dem turncoat running in New Jersey.

A small sample of the Republican presidential result at 8:40PM actually has over 25% of it going against Trump.  Let's see how that holds, but the usual trend is around five percent with at most ten percent.  And, very early returns have Biden likely to get all or nearly all of the delegates in the two states.  But, we shall update things.  There are a handful of state and presidential races this weekend and next Tuesday.  New York will continue to count during this time.  And, then things skip to August with Connecticut as the last presidential primary state. 

Anyway, good Biden op-ed though the amendment idea is off.
Morning Results: The anti-Trump result in Delaware has dropped to 12%, which is still more than was in place generally.  Republicans have dropped a name, Tom Kean Jr. (his dad was governor, president of Drew University and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission), to regain a House seat.  Most of the races are not close, such as one competed race deemed settled (another Kennedy), but maybe Sanders (12%) still has a chance to win delegates in New Jersey.  Uncommitted is less than a percent there. Sanders received seven percent, Warren three in Delaware in early results.  Will update.

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