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Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Primary Update: Nebraska etc.

Twenty-nine Nebraska convention delegates were at stake in yesterday's primary. I will use this entry to cover various electoral related matters.

For instance, today the finale of the telephonic Supreme Court arguments (no orders on Monday even though there was a conference on the previous Friday) involved faithless electors. As one might recall, Bush won in 2000 with four more electoral votes (really three but a D.C. elector submitted a null vote to call attention to something or other, nothing if the vote mattered, it would have gone to Gore). The two cases were split because Sotomayor recused in one because she is friendly with a party.  The tenor of the arguments suggest a majority will find a way to avoid denying the states power here though a few justices might disagree somewhat.

[Somewhat relatedly, Aimee Stephens, a party in one of the GLBT employment cases has died though like a religious liberty case argued this week, I gather her spouse still has standing regarding damages or the like.]

Also, for now, New York will have a presidential primary pursuant to a district court ruling overturning its cancellation.  The state is appealing though the opinion (basically resting on First Amendment grounds) seems sound.  As noted, even if the candidate is a given, the election is “also serves to determine the party’s principles and goals through the adoption of a platform.”  Either way, by some measure, Sanders would get some sort of fraction of New York delegates by agreement, but here the voters decide.  Even if allegations of specific anti-Sanders (or primary challengers) bias is overblown, refuting that sort of thing is also helpful.

The decision seems to leave open in-person voting but not sure if that is compelled -- Andrew Yang surely seems to think mail-in voting would be acceptable.  OTOH, even if the same number of regular polling places need not be open if it is unsafe, some in person locations is likely important.  And, showing that the technicalities of New York elections still has some ability to pop up (if not quite like one person who might have had her name kept off the Democratic ballot) in inane ways -- AOC had too few signatures to get on the Working Family Party line.  She really should have made sure to have a few extra, given how these things go, but as her campaign notes, it doesn't really matter.  After all, we are talking a new limit of fifteen.  But, it still is rather silly, especially since there are no other candidates for that line.

(Here is another picayune ruling by a lower court  that turns on a filing a day late in the middle of a pandemic, the person in the hospital and clashing with a law that changed in midstream.  There are going to be asinine applications of the law but New York seems to have this happen too often. The legislature might want to clarify things some more.)

Indiana was due to vote on May 5th but postponed. Wyoming also voted for various Republican races, causing some controversy.  It is to be noted again that though presidential races might be handled separately, especially this year, there is usually more races than the now mostly sealed (again except for convention delegates and the chance to vote) presidential races.  This would also include Nebraska, which has in person voting if with special rules for social distancing, not using rest rooms or providing voting stickers.  Recall again that Nebraska is the one state with a unicameral (one house) legislature with each member called "senator."

Nebraska ran a caucus system in 2016 but per party pressure was one that shifted to a primary.  Wyoming did so for Big V purposes, having a mail-in primary.  Iowa, Nevada, North Dakota and some territories did or plan for now to have caucuses.  Puerto Rico has not re-scheduled its primary and if there isn't any, Biden would likely get most of them though some agreement might be made to provide some to Sanders.  The rules originally would strip Sanders of lots of delegates for suspending but Biden agreed not to have that occur. So, even if New York has no primary, it is unlikely in the end that all 200+ delegates would go to Biden.

Results. Again, there were other elections (and a vote on a bond issue) with Kara Eastman, e.g., getting a second chance to beat the Republican House candidate (she lost in a close race last time).  She is the more left leaning candidate though I have seen some suggestion she compromised a bit to gain support.  This is Nebraska.  Sanders won Nebraska in 2016; this time it does not appear he even met the 15% floor (there is no instant run-off voting, so Warren's six percent and Gabbard's 3% was key -- Sanders received 14% so surely could have received around four delegates in another system -- a small matter here but suggestive of how election procedures do matter).  So, 29 more delegates for Biden.

Next Tuesday: Oregon.  Kentucky postponed. West Virginia was also originally  yesterday but postponed. 

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